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Tropical Depression Eleven Forecast Advisory Number 1
2020-08-11 22:32:21| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC TUE AUG 11 2020 000 WTNT21 KNHC 112032 TCMAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112020 2100 UTC TUE AUG 11 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.7N 40.0W AT 11/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.7N 40.0W AT 11/2100Z AT 11/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.6N 39.6W FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 12.0N 42.1W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 12.4N 44.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 13.0N 46.9W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 13.9N 49.4W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 15.1N 51.8W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 16.4N 54.3W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 20SE 0SW 30NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 15/1800Z 18.5N 59.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 16/1800Z 21.0N 64.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.7N 40.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BERG
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Tropical Depression Eleven Wind Speed Probabilities Number 1
2020-08-11 22:32:21| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC TUE AUG 11 2020 000 FONT11 KNHC 112032 PWSAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112020 2100 UTC TUE AUG 11 2020 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 40.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT VIEQUES PR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) SAINT THOMAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) SAINT CROIX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) SAINT MAARTEN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) SABA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) ST EUSTATIUS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) BARBUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) ANTIGUA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) GUADELOUPE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) $$ FORECASTER BERG
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Tropical Depression Nine-E Graphics
2020-08-09 04:37:55| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 09 Aug 2020 02:37:55 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 09 Aug 2020 02:37:55 GMT
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Summary for Tropical Depression Nine-E (EP4/EP092020)
2020-08-09 04:36:18| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS TO THE SOUTH OF MEXICO... As of 10:00 PM CDT Sat Aug 8 the center of Nine-E was located near 14.7, -102.6 with movement WNW at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression Nine-E Public Advisory Number 1
2020-08-09 04:36:18| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1000 PM CDT Sat Aug 08 2020 305 WTPZ34 KNHC 090236 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Nine-E Advisory Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092020 1000 PM CDT Sat Aug 08 2020 ...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS TO THE SOUTH OF MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.7N 102.6W ABOUT 315 MI...510 KM SSE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Nine-E was located near latitude 14.7 North, longitude 102.6 West. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue through Monday. On the forecast track, the center of the system will remain well offshore of the coast of Mexico for the next several days. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast, and the cyclone is likely to become a tropical storm on Sunday and a hurricane by late Monday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch
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