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Tropical Depression Eleven Forecast Advisory Number 2
2020-08-12 04:31:53| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC WED AUG 12 2020 000 WTNT21 KNHC 120231 TCMAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112020 0300 UTC WED AUG 12 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.0N 41.5W AT 12/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.0N 41.5W AT 12/0300Z AT 12/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.9N 40.9W FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 12.3N 43.4W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 12.8N 45.9W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 13.5N 48.3W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 20SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 14.5N 50.8W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 15.7N 53.3W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 17.0N 55.7W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 16/0000Z 19.5N 60.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 17/0000Z 22.0N 65.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.0N 41.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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Tropical Depression Eleven Graphics
2020-08-11 22:33:48| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 11 Aug 2020 20:33:48 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 11 Aug 2020 20:33:49 GMT
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Tropical Depression Eleven Forecast Discussion Number 1
2020-08-11 22:32:51| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Tue Aug 11 2020 000 WTNT41 KNHC 112032 TCDAT1 Tropical Depression Eleven Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112020 500 PM AST Tue Aug 11 2020 Visible satellite imagery and ASCAT-C data from earlier in the day have shown that the area of low pressure NHC has been monitoring over the tropical Atlantic has developed a less-elongated circulation with a well-defined center. For the most part, deep convection has persisted with the system since about this time yesterday, save a brief period of warming cloud tops this morning. The low now meets the criteria of a tropical cyclone, and advisories have been initiated on Tropical Depression Eleven with 30-kt winds, in line with the latest Dvorak Current Intensity numbers from TAFB and SAB. The depression is moving westward, or 280/14 kt, to the south of a large mid-tropospheric high centered over the central Atlantic. This pattern is expected to evolve rather quickly, with a break developing in the ridge over the central Atlantic by 48 hours. This change should allow the depression to begin making more poleward progress, moving west-northwestward from 36 hours until the end of the forecast period. The track models are in good agreement on this scenario, as well as the system's forward speed, and bring the center of the cyclone near or just to the north of the northern Leeward Islands in 4-5 days. This first NHC forecast lies just to the north of the multi-model consensus cluster through day 3, out of respect for the northern-lying ECMWF model, and then is close to HCCA on days 4 and 5. Conventional satellite imagery and Saharan Air Layer analyses suggest that the center of the depression is being shielded from much drier air to its north and west. However, as has been the case for a few days, at least 15 kt of easterly shear has been pushing deep convection to the western side of the circulation. This shear is expected to decrease over the next day or two, which should allow for gradual strengthening to begin by 36 hours, and a peak in the cyclone's intensity should occur in about 3 days. For this period, the NHC intensity forecast is a little above HCCA and the IVCN intensity consensus. After that time, westerly or southwesterly shear is forecast to develop and increase to 20-30 kt by days 4 and 5, which is likely to induce significant weakening. In fact, it's notable that the conditions become hostile enough that the global models are showing the system opening up into a trough near the northern Leeward Islands by day 5, which is a plausible alternate scenario. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 11/2100Z 11.7N 40.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 12/0600Z 12.0N 42.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 12/1800Z 12.4N 44.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 13/0600Z 13.0N 46.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 13/1800Z 13.9N 49.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 60H 14/0600Z 15.1N 51.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 14/1800Z 16.4N 54.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 15/1800Z 18.5N 59.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 120H 16/1800Z 21.0N 64.0W 35 KT 40 MPH $$ Forecaster Berg
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Summary for Tropical Depression Eleven (AT1/AL112020)
2020-08-11 22:32:21| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC OCEAN... As of 5:00 PM AST Tue Aug 11 the center of Eleven was located near 11.7, -40.0 with movement W at 16 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression Eleven Public Advisory Number 1
2020-08-11 22:32:21| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Tue Aug 11 2020 000 WTNT31 KNHC 112032 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Eleven Advisory Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112020 500 PM AST Tue Aug 11 2020 ...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC OCEAN... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...11.7N 40.0W ABOUT 1110 MI...1790 KM WSW OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS ABOUT 1450 MI...2335 KM E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Eleven was located near latitude 11.7 North, longitude 40.0 West. The depression is moving toward the west near 16 mph (26 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through Wednesday. A west-northwestward motion at a similar forward speed is forecast to begin Wednesday night and continue through the rest of the week. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and the depression is expected to become a tropical storm by Wednesday night. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Berg
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