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Tropical Depression Ten Forecast Discussion Number 4
2020-08-01 16:32:50| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 200 PM CVT Sat Aug 01 2020 000 WTNT45 KNHC 011432 TCDAT5 Tropical Depression Ten Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102020 200 PM CVT Sat Aug 01 2020 The center of the depression is mostly exposed this morning with deep convection remaining only over the northwest portion of the circulation. A recent ASCAT overpass showed a small area of winds of 20 to 25 kt in the northern semicircle. Based on this data, the initial intensity has been lowered to 25 kt. The persistent convection has likely bought a little more time for the depression to survive. However, the cyclone is forecast to remain over SSTs of about 24 to 25 C for the next day or so. This should cause the convection to gradually decrease, causing the depression to become a remnant low by tonight. An alternative scenario is that the low could open into a trough before the convection dissipates. The depression is moving northwest at around 12 kt. A turn to the west-northwest is expected later today as the cyclone pivots around a large mid-level gyre to its southwest. This west-northwest motion should continue until the system dissipates. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/1500Z 18.6N 22.2W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 02/0000Z 19.8N 23.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 02/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Latto
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Summary for Tropical Depression Ten (AT5/AL102020)
2020-08-01 16:32:20| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...DEPRESSION EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW OR DISSIPATE BY TONIGHT... As of 2:00 PM CVT Sat Aug 1 the center of Ten was located near 18.6, -22.2 with movement NW at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1009 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 30 mph.
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Tropical Depression Ten Public Advisory Number 4
2020-08-01 16:32:20| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 200 PM CVT Sat Aug 01 2020 000 WTNT35 KNHC 011432 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Ten Advisory Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102020 200 PM CVT Sat Aug 01 2020 ...DEPRESSION EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW OR DISSIPATE BY TONIGHT... SUMMARY OF 200 PM CVT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.6N 22.2W ABOUT 215 MI...345 KM NNE OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM CVT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Ten was located near latitude 18.6 North, longitude 22.2 West. The depression is moving toward the northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h). A turn toward the west-northwest is expected later today. On the forecast track, the center of the depression is expected to move north of the Cabo Verde Islands this afternoon. Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts. The depression is expected to become a remnant low or dissipate by tonight. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb (29.80 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 PM CVT. $$ Forecaster Latto
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Tropical Depression Ten Forecast Advisory Number 4
2020-08-01 16:32:20| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC SAT AUG 01 2020 000 WTNT25 KNHC 011432 TCMAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102020 1500 UTC SAT AUG 01 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.6N 22.2W AT 01/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.6N 22.2W AT 01/1500Z AT 01/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.2N 21.7W FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 19.8N 23.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.6N 22.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/2100Z $$ FORECASTER LATTO
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Tropical Depression Ten Wind Speed Probabilities Number 4
2020-08-01 16:32:19| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC SAT AUG 01 2020 000 FONT15 KNHC 011432 PWSAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102020 1500 UTC SAT AUG 01 2020 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 22.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 25 KTS...30 MPH...45 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER LATTO
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