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Tropical Depression Ten Forecast Advisory Number 3
2020-08-01 10:31:14| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC SAT AUG 01 2020 000 WTNT25 KNHC 010831 TCMAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102020 0900 UTC SAT AUG 01 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 21.6W AT 01/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 45 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 14 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 21.6W AT 01/0900Z AT 01/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.4N 21.3W FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 19.2N 23.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 20.5N 26.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.8N 21.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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Tropical Depression Ten Graphics
2020-08-01 04:49:37| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 01 Aug 2020 02:49:37 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 01 Aug 2020 03:31:52 GMT
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Tropical Depression Ten Forecast Discussion Number 2
2020-08-01 04:48:41| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 200 AM CVT Sat Aug 01 2020 000 WTNT45 KNHC 010248 TCDAT5 Tropical Depression Ten Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102020 200 AM CVT Sat Aug 01 2020 The small depression maintained a large burst of convection in its northwest quadrant for several hours after the last advisory, though cloud tops have warmed steadily since around 00Z. An ASCAT-B pass near 2300 UTC showed max winds near 35 kt, but these winds coincided with the coldest cloud tops in Meteosat imagery at that time, indicating they may have been rain inflated. Data from ASCAT-C valid about 40 minutes earlier only showed peak winds closer to 30 kt, also near the deepest convection. The highest wind retrievals in the east half of the circulation, where you would often expect the highest winds for a system moving north or northwest, were between 25 and 30 kt in both passes. Subjective Dvorak intensity estimates were 30 kt and 25 kt from TAFB and SAB, respectively, at 00Z. It is possible that the cyclone briefly had tropical-storm-strength winds at one point, but given the observed warming of cloud tops since 00Z, the intensity is maintained at 30 kt for this advisory. There is no real change to the forecast reasoning. The depression is moving northwestward and a turn toward the west-northwest is expected later today as it moves around a larger cyclonic gyre. Conditions do not appear to be favorable for any strengthening, and the dynamical models indicate that deep convection will dissipate later today due to cool underlying SSTs and a drier surrounding environment. The NHC track and intensity forecast is based on the TVCA and IVCN consensus aids and has not been changed significantly from the previous advisory. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/0300Z 17.1N 21.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 01/1200Z 18.4N 22.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 02/0000Z 19.3N 25.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 02/1200Z 20.0N 28.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 03/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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Tropical Depression Ten Wind Speed Probabilities Number 2
2020-08-01 04:46:11| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC SAT AUG 01 2020 624 FONT15 KNHC 010246 PWSAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102020 0300 UTC SAT AUG 01 2020 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 21.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
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Summary for Tropical Depression Ten (AT5/AL102020)
2020-08-01 04:46:10| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...DEPRESSION PERSISTING OVER THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC... ...FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW ON SATURDAY... As of 2:00 AM CVT Sat Aug 1 the center of Ten was located near 17.1, -21.1 with movement NW at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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