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Tropical Depression Ten Public Advisory Number 2

2020-08-01 04:46:10| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 200 AM CVT Sat Aug 01 2020 552 WTNT35 KNHC 010246 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Ten Advisory Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102020 200 AM CVT Sat Aug 01 2020 ...DEPRESSION PERSISTING OVER THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC... ...FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW ON SATURDAY... SUMMARY OF 200 AM CVT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.1N 21.1W ABOUT 205 MI...330 KM ENE OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 AM CVT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Ten was located near latitude 17.1 North, longitude 21.1 West. The depression is moving toward the northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h). A turn toward the west-northwest or west is expected by Saturday afternoon. On the forecast track, the center of the depression is expected to move north of the northernmost Cabo Verde Islands on Saturday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Although the system could briefly become a short-lived tropical storm, it is forecast to weaken and become a remnant low within the next 24 hours. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 AM CVT. $$ Forecaster Zelinsky

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Tropical Depression Ten Forecast Advisory Number 2

2020-08-01 04:45:42| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0300 UTC SAT AUG 01 2020 000 WTNT25 KNHC 010245 TCMAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102020 0300 UTC SAT AUG 01 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 21.1W AT 01/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 45 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 21.1W AT 01/0300Z AT 01/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.7N 20.6W FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 18.4N 22.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 19.3N 25.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 20.0N 28.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.1N 21.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/0900Z $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY

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Tropical Depression Ten Graphics

2020-08-01 00:36:48| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 31 Jul 2020 22:36:48 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 31 Jul 2020 22:36:48 GMT

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Tropical Depression Ten Graphics

2020-07-31 23:03:34| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 31 Jul 2020 21:03:34 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 31 Jul 2020 21:03:34 GMT

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Tropical Depression Ten Forecast Discussion Number 1

2020-07-31 22:48:40| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 800 PM CVT Fri Jul 31 2020 000 WTNT45 KNHC 312048 TCDAT5 Tropical Depression Ten Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102020 800 PM CVT Fri Jul 31 2020 Deep convection has recently developed closer to the center of a small area of low pressure located a couple of hundred miles east of the Cabo Verde Islands. Earlier ASCAT data indicated peak winds of around 25 kt, but given the small size of the system and the likely undersampling of the instrument, the initial intensity is set at 30 kt. This is in line with a Dvorak classification of T2.0 from SAB. With the recent increase in convective organization, there is a potential for the depression to become a short-lived tropical storm tonight. After that time, the environment is forecast to become increasingly hostile as cooler waters and less favorable thermodynamic conditions lie ahead. As a result, weakening should begin on Saturday and the system is forecast to become a remnant low Saturday night and dissipate shortly thereafter. The system is moving slightly west of due north, or 355/8 kt. The depression is forecast to turn northwestward tonight, then west-northwestward to westward on Saturday and Saturday night as it moves around the eastern side of a large cyclonic gyre over the far eastern Atlantic. The track guidance is in relatively good agreement, and the NHC forecast is near the TVCA multi-model consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 31/2100Z 15.9N 20.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 01/0600Z 17.3N 21.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 01/1800Z 18.5N 23.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 02/0600Z 18.8N 25.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 02/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown

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