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Tropical Depression Thirteen-E Forecast Advisory Number 1
2019-09-12 16:51:02| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC THU SEP 12 2019 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 121450 TCMEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132019 ISSUED BY THE NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 1500 UTC THU SEP 12 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 111.1W AT 12/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 111.1W AT 12/1500Z AT 12/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 110.6W FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 16.3N 112.8W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 16.5N 114.8W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 20SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 16.7N 116.7W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 30SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 17.0N 118.4W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 40SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 17.9N 122.0W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 50SW 70NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 16/1200Z 18.8N 124.8W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 17/1200Z 19.5N 126.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.9N 111.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/2100Z $$ FORECASTER CHENARD/BLAKE
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Tropical Depression Fernand Graphics
2019-09-04 22:34:34| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 04 Sep 2019 20:34:34 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 04 Sep 2019 20:34:34 GMT
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Tropical Depression Fernand Forecast Discussion Number 7
2019-09-04 22:33:43| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 PM CDT Wed Sep 04 2019 000 WTNT42 KNHC 042033 TCDAT2 Tropical Depression Fernand Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072019 400 PM CDT Wed Sep 04 2019 Fernand moved inland a few hours ago, and the surface center is already showing signs of becoming poorly defined. The intensity is now estimated at 30 kt, assuming weakening has occurred since the cyclone moved inland. This makes Fernand a Tropical Depression. The depression should move westward or west-northwestward for the next 12 h or so while it continues to weaken, and it could dissipate as soon as tonight. Although the winds have decreased and the depression will likely dissipate soon, Fernand is still producing substantial convection and continues to pose a significant rain threat to northeast Mexico. Life-threatening flash floods and mudslides will be possible through Thursday, even after Fernand dissipates. Please consult products from you local weather service for more information on the potential rainfall hazard. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/2100Z 24.4N 98.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 05/0600Z 25.0N 100.0W 25 KT 30 MPH 24H 05/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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Tropical Depression Fernand Wind Speed Probabilities Number 7
2019-09-04 22:33:18| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC WED SEP 04 2019 000 FONT12 KNHC 042033 PWSAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FERNAND WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072019 2100 UTC WED SEP 04 2019 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FERNAND WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 98.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
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Summary for Tropical Depression Fernand (AT2/AL072019)
2019-09-04 22:33:12| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...FERNAND PRODUCING HEAVY RAINS OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN MEXICO... ...THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT... As of 4:00 PM CDT Wed Sep 4 the center of Fernand was located near 24.4, -98.3 with movement WNW at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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