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Home › depression

 

Tag: depression

Tropical Depression Twelve-E Forecast Advisory Number 1

2019-09-04 16:42:08| Tropical Depression LIDIA

Issued at 1500 UTC WED SEP 04 2019

Tags: number advisory tropical depression

Tropical Depression Eight Graphics

2019-09-04 04:41:16| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 04 Sep 2019 02:41:16 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 04 Sep 2019 03:38:49 GMT

Tags: graphics tropical depression tropical depression

Tropical Depression Eight Forecast Discussion Number 2

2019-09-04 04:40:37| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 PM AST Tue Sep 03 2019 000 WTNT43 KNHC 040240 TCDAT3 Tropical Depression Eight Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082019 1100 PM AST Tue Sep 03 2019 A recent scatterometer pass indicated that the low-level center was farther south than previously thought, and that the strongest winds of 30 kt are within a band of deep convection over the northern semicircle. Based on these data and a blend of the subjective and objective intensity estimates, 30 kt will be the initial intensity for this advisory. The depression will be in a marginally favorable environment of 10 to 15 kt of shear and over SSTs just over 26C for the next few days. Some slight strengthening could occur during this time frame, and it is reflected in the official forecast, bringing the intensity to 50 kt by Thursday night. After that time, the cyclone will begin to move over warmer waters, but into a drier environment with some increase in the wind shear. It is difficult to know at this point in time as to what effect these conflicting conditions may have on the cyclone's intensity. Therefore, beyond 48 hours the intensity is held in a steady state. The official intensity forecast is just a tad higher than the previous one, and is very near the various intensity consensus models. The initial motion is 320/07 kt. A general northwestward motion is expected through the forecast period on the eastern periphery of a subtropical ridge extending from Africa to the eastern Atlantic. An increase in forward motion is expected late this week, as the cyclone gets caught in the southeast flow between the ridge to its east and a developing mid- to upper-level low to the west. The official forecast track is slightly to the left of the previous one through 72 hours due to the adjustment of the initial position. Thereafter the track forecast is little changed and close to the consensus aid TVCX. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/0300Z 19.1N 32.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 04/1200Z 19.7N 33.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 05/0000Z 20.6N 34.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 05/1200Z 21.6N 35.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 06/0000Z 23.0N 36.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 07/0000Z 27.1N 39.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 08/0000Z 31.7N 43.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 09/0000Z 35.4N 46.1W 50 KT 60 MPH $$ Forecaster Latto

Tags: number discussion tropical depression

Tropical Depression Eight Wind Speed Probabilities Number 2

2019-09-04 04:40:05| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0300 UTC WED SEP 04 2019 000 FONT13 KNHC 040239 PWSAT3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082019 0300 UTC WED SEP 04 2019 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 32.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER LATTO

Tags: number speed wind tropical

Summary for Tropical Depression Eight (AT3/AL082019)

2019-09-04 04:39:30| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...DEPRESSION EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN TO A TROPICAL STORM ON WEDNESDAY... As of 11:00 PM AST Tue Sep 3 the center of Eight was located near 19.1, -32.8 with movement NW at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

Tags: summary tropical depression tropical depression

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