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Tropical Depression Ivo Public Advisory Number 17
2019-08-25 10:38:52| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT Sun Aug 25 2019 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 250838 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Ivo Advisory Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102019 200 AM PDT Sun Aug 25 2019 ...IVO WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW LATER TODAY... SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...24.5N 117.0W ABOUT 460 MI...745 KM WNW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Ivo was located near latitude 24.5 North, longitude 117.0 West. The depression is moving toward the north-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue today. A decrease in forward speed and a turn to the north is forecast to occur tonight and Monday. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Ivo is forecast to degenerate to a remnant low later today and dissipate in a couple of days. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Ivo are affecting the west coast of Baja California peninsula and portions of the southern California coastline. These swells are likely to continue through today and could cause life-threatening surf and rip currents. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Tropical Depression Ivo Wind Speed Probabilities Number 17
2019-08-25 10:38:52| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC SUN AUG 25 2019 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 250838 PWSEP5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION IVO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102019 0900 UTC SUN AUG 25 2019 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION IVO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 117.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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Tropical Depression Ivo Forecast Advisory Number 17
2019-08-25 10:38:27| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC SUN AUG 25 2019 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 250838 TCMEP5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION IVO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102019 0900 UTC SUN AUG 25 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.5N 117.0W AT 25/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 340 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 90SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.5N 117.0W AT 25/0900Z AT 25/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.0N 116.8W FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 25.8N 117.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 26.8N 118.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 27.5N 117.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.5N 117.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/1500Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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Tropical Depression Five Forecast Discussion Number 1
2019-08-24 16:57:10| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Sat Aug 24 2019 000 WTNT45 KNHC 241457 TCDAT5 Tropical Depression Five Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019 1100 AM AST Sat Aug 24 2019 The small low pressure system that the NHC has been tracking the past several days across the tropical Atlantic Ocean has acquired enough deep convection to be classified as a tropical depression, the fifth tropical cyclone of the 2019 hurricane season. Two ASCAT passes between 1200-1300Z this morning indicated that the system had a closed circulation and surface winds of at least 30 kt, and that is the intensity set for this advisory. Upper-level outflow is fair to the northwest and restricted to the southeast due to moderate easterly vertical wind shear. The initial motion estimate is 280/10 kt. The NHC model guidance is in very good agreement that the cyclone will move in a general west-northwestward direction along the southern periphery of a deep-layer ridge for the next 5 days, bring the system through the central or northern Lesser Antilles on Tuesday, and into the northeastern Caribbean Sea on Wednesday and Thursday. The official forecast track is close to the consensus model TVCN, which is a little north of the NOAA HCCA corrected-consensus model. The small cyclone is currently experiencing easterly to southeasterly shear of about 15 kt. The shear is forecast to steadily decrease over the next 24 h and be around 5 kt in the 24-to-72-hour time period. Although the depression is expected to remain embedded in a fairly dry mid-level environment, the small overall circulation, small radius of maximum winds, low shear regime, and warm SSTs of 28.0-28.5 deg C should allow for slow but steady intensification through the 5-day period despite occasional intrusions of dry air. The NHC intensity forecast is a blend of the statistical-dynamical SHIPS and LGEM models, and the more robust HWRF model. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/1500Z 10.4N 47.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 25/0000Z 10.7N 49.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 25/1200Z 11.0N 51.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 26/0000Z 11.4N 53.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 26/1200Z 12.0N 55.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 27/1200Z 13.6N 59.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 28/1200Z 15.2N 63.1W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 29/1200Z 17.1N 66.7W 75 KT 85 MPH $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Tropical Depression Five Graphics
2019-08-24 16:49:23| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 24 Aug 2019 14:49:23 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 24 Aug 2019 14:49:23 GMT
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