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Tropical Depression Chantal Wind Speed Probabilities Number 10

2019-08-23 10:38:25| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0900 UTC FRI AUG 23 2019 111 FONT14 KNHC 230838 PWSAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CHANTAL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042019 0900 UTC FRI AUG 23 2019 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION CHANTAL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 37.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 40.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 25 KTS...30 MPH...45 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BERG

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Tropical Depression Chantal Forecast Advisory Number 10

2019-08-23 10:38:01| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0900 UTC FRI AUG 23 2019 000 WTNT24 KNHC 230837 TCMAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CHANTAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042019 0900 UTC FRI AUG 23 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 37.1N 40.9W AT 23/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST OR 140 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1010 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 37.1N 40.9W AT 23/0900Z AT 23/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 37.4N 41.1W FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 36.3N 40.7W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 35.4N 41.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 35.2N 42.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 35.4N 43.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 37.1N 40.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BERG

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Tropical Depression Chantal Graphics

2019-08-23 04:35:07| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 23 Aug 2019 02:35:07 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 23 Aug 2019 02:35:08 GMT

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Tropical Depression Chantal Forecast Discussion Number 9

2019-08-23 04:34:24| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 PM AST Thu Aug 22 2019 000 WTNT44 KNHC 230234 TCDAT4 Tropical Depression Chantal Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042019 1100 PM AST Thu Aug 22 2019 Chantal continues to survive the harsh thermodynamic and shear environment of the central Atlantic by producing intermittent small bursts of deep convection well to the east of the exposed surface center. No changes to the subjective satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB this evening, and the initial intensity is once again held at 30 kt. Large-scale sinking air with low to mid-level associated relative humidities less than 40 percent along with increasing west-southwesterly vertical shear are expected to weaken Chantal to a remnant low by Saturday, and dissipate in less than 3 days. The initial motion is estimated to be southeastward, or 135/6 kt, around the northeastern periphery of a subtropical ridge over the central Atlantic. The global and ensemble guidance continue to show an anti-cyclonic motion at a slower forward speed before the system dissipates over the weekend. The new NHC forecast follows suit and is based on a compromise of the NOAA HCCA model and the simple TVCA multi-model consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/0300Z 37.8N 41.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 23/1200Z 37.1N 41.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 24/0000Z 36.1N 41.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 24/1200Z 35.6N 42.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 25/0000Z 35.9N 42.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 26/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Roberts

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Summary for Tropical Depression Chantal (AT4/AL042019)

2019-08-23 04:34:00| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...CHANTAL HEADING SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC... As of 11:00 PM AST Thu Aug 22 the center of Chantal was located near 37.8, -41.9 with movement SE at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1010 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

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