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Summary for Tropical Depression Six (AT1/AL062019)

2019-08-27 04:38:47| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION REMAINS POORLY ORGANIZED AS IT MEANDERS BETWEEN THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST AND BERMUDA... As of 11:00 PM EDT Mon Aug 26 the center of Six was located near 31.5, -72.2 with movement E at 3 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1010 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

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Tropical Depression Six Public Advisory Number 2

2019-08-27 04:38:47| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 PM EDT Mon Aug 26 2019 000 WTNT31 KNHC 270238 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Six Advisory Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062019 1100 PM EDT Mon Aug 26 2019 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION REMAINS POORLY ORGANIZED AS IT MEANDERS BETWEEN THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST AND BERMUDA... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...31.5N 72.2W ABOUT 320 MI...515 KM SE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 100 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB...29.83 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Six was located near latitude 31.5 North, longitude 72.2 West. The depression is moving toward the east near 3 mph (6 km/h). The depression is expected to meander through Tuesday before accelerating northeastward Tuesday night through Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slight strengthening is expected over the next day or so and the depression is expected to intensify to a tropical storm by Tuesday night. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1010 mb (29.83 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Latto/Pasch

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Tropical Depression Six Forecast Advisory Number 2

2019-08-27 04:38:47| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0300 UTC TUE AUG 27 2019 000 WTNT21 KNHC 270238 TCMAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062019 0300 UTC TUE AUG 27 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.5N 72.2W AT 27/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 35 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR 100 DEGREES AT 3 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1010 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.5N 72.2W AT 27/0300Z AT 27/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.4N 72.3W FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 31.6N 72.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 32.1N 71.9W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 90SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 33.4N 71.7W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 120SE 0SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 35.5N 70.7W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 120SE 0SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 41.3N 65.1W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 120SE 60SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 31/0000Z 48.1N 57.8W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 01/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.5N 72.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/0900Z $$ FORECASTER LATTO/PASCH

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Tropical Depression Six Graphics

2019-08-26 22:39:43| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 26 Aug 2019 20:39:43 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 26 Aug 2019 20:39:43 GMT

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Tropical Depression Six Forecast Discussion Number 1

2019-08-26 22:38:42| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 PM EDT Mon Aug 26 2019 000 WTNT41 KNHC 262038 TCDAT1 Tropical Depression Six Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062019 500 PM EDT Mon Aug 26 2019 The circulation associated with the area of low pressure that has been tracked across the western Atlantic the past several days has become better defined during the past 24 hours. The associated convection, which is located well to the southeast of the low-level center due to shear, has also become more persistent and organized into a band today. As a result, advisories are being initiated on a tropical depression. The initial wind speed has been set at 30 kt, based on earlier ASCAT data. There were a few 35-kt vectors in the ASCAT-A overpass but those data appeared to be rain-inflated. The depression is currently located over warm water but within an environment of moderate westerly shear, which is likely to continue during the next day or so. Although some slight strengthening is forecast, the shear is likely to prohibit significant deepening during that time. After 36 h, the shear is forecast to decrease while the system moves northeastward and some modest strengthening is anticipated. Later in the period, an approaching mid-latitude trough may also help to strengthen the cyclone due to baroclinic processes, and the system is forecast to become extratropical in 3 to 4 days, and should be absorbed by a larger extratropical cyclone by day 5. The initial motion estimate is a somewhat uncertain 080/2 kt. The depression is forecast to drift eastward or northeastward during the next day or so as it remains in an area of weak steering flow between a couple of mid-level anticyclones. As the aforementioned mid-latitude trough approaches the northeastern United States on Wednesday, it should cause the cyclone to accelerate northeastward well east of the east coast of the United States. The track guidance is in relatively good agreement, but there are some differences in how fast it will be ejected northeastward. The NHC track forecast leans toward the slower ECMWF solution during the first day or so, then closer to the consensus aids later in the period. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 26/2100Z 31.7N 72.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 27/0600Z 31.8N 72.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 27/1800Z 32.1N 71.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 28/0600Z 32.9N 71.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 28/1800Z 34.6N 71.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 29/1800Z 40.3N 66.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 30/1800Z 47.0N 60.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 31/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown

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