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Tropical Depression Chantal Public Advisory Number 9
2019-08-23 04:34:00| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Thu Aug 22 2019 000 WTNT34 KNHC 230233 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Chantal Advisory Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042019 1100 PM AST Thu Aug 22 2019 ...CHANTAL HEADING SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...37.8N 41.9W ABOUT 840 MI...1350 KM SE OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...SE OR 135 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB...29.83 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Chantal was located near latitude 37.8 North, longitude 41.9 West. Chantal is moving toward the southeast near 7 mph (11 km/h) and is expected to slowly make a clockwise loop through Sunday. Maximum sustained winds remain near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Weakening is forecast, and the depression is expected to degenerate into a remnant low Friday night. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1010 mb (29.83 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Roberts
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Tropical Depression Chantal Wind Speed Probabilities Number 9
2019-08-23 04:34:00| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC FRI AUG 23 2019 000 FONT14 KNHC 230233 PWSAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CHANTAL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042019 0300 UTC FRI AUG 23 2019 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION CHANTAL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 37.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 41.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS
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Tropical Depression Chantal Forecast Advisory Number 9
2019-08-23 04:33:26| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC FRI AUG 23 2019 000 WTNT24 KNHC 230233 TCMAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CHANTAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042019 0300 UTC FRI AUG 23 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 37.8N 41.9W AT 23/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST OR 135 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1010 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 37.8N 41.9W AT 23/0300Z AT 23/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 38.0N 42.1W FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 37.1N 41.2W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 36.1N 41.3W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 35.6N 42.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 35.9N 42.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 37.8N 41.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/0900Z $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS
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Tropical Depression Chantal Graphics
2019-08-22 22:33:26| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 22 Aug 2019 20:33:26 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 22 Aug 2019 20:33:26 GMT
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Tropical Depression Chantal Forecast Discussion Number 8
2019-08-22 22:32:23| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Thu Aug 22 2019 000 WTNT44 KNHC 222032 TCDAT4 Tropical Depression Chantal Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042019 500 PM AST Thu Aug 22 2019 Chantal is still producing deep convection to the east of the exposed low-level center. The initial intensity will be held at 30 kt based on a combination of earlier scatterometer data and current satellite intensity estimates. While the cyclone continues to move toward warmer sea surface temperatures and into an area of decreasing vertical wind shear, abundant dry air and increasing upper-level convergence should cause the associated convection to dissipate in 24 h or so. There is no change to the previous intensity forecast, and Chantal is expected to decay to a remnant low by 36 h and dissipated completely by 96 h. The initial motion is now 110/12. A building low- to mid-level ridge is separating Chantal from the mid-latitude westerlies, and this should leave the cyclone in an area of weak steering currents. The track guidance continues to forecast a clockwise loop before the cyclone dissipates, and the new official forecast track is basically an update of the previous advisory. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/2100Z 38.1N 42.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 23/0600Z 37.3N 41.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 23/1800Z 36.3N 40.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 24/0600Z 35.6N 41.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 24/1800Z 35.5N 41.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 25/1800Z 37.0N 42.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 26/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven
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