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Tropical Depression Six Forecast Discussion Number 5
2019-08-27 22:34:56| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM EDT Tue Aug 27 2019 000 WTNT41 KNHC 272034 TCDAT1 Tropical Depression Six Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062019 500 PM EDT Tue Aug 27 2019 After a brief period when the center was near the edge of the convection this morning, once again the northwesterly shear disrupted the cloud pattern, and the low-level center has become detached from the main thunderstorm activity. The Dvorak estimates have not changed and still support an initial intensity of 30 kt. Earlier ASCAT data also indicated some vectors of 30 kt in the southeast quadrant. Since the shear is not forecast to abate, only a small increase in intensity is forecast during the next 24 to 36 hours. After that time, the cyclone will be moving over cooler waters and should become extratropical while becoming absorbed by a larger trough. The depression meandered all day, but it has now been moving slowly toward the north-northwest or 345 degrees at 6 knots. This motion is highly uncertain because it includes the back and forth shifting of the center from the edge of the convection during the past several hours. The southwesterly flow ahead of the approaching mid-latitude trough should steer the cyclone northward and then northeastward with increasing forward speed over the North Atlantic. The NHC track forecast has been adjusted a little bit to the north in this advisory following the northward shift of the multimodel consensus TVCA and HCCA. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/2100Z 31.8N 71.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 28/0600Z 32.7N 72.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 28/1800Z 35.0N 72.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 29/0600Z 38.0N 70.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 29/1800Z 41.5N 67.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 30/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Avila
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Tropical Depression Six Wind Speed Probabilities Number 5
2019-08-27 22:34:26| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC TUE AUG 27 2019 000 FONT11 KNHC 272034 PWSAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062019 2100 UTC TUE AUG 27 2019 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 71.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT PTX BASQUES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) EDDY POINT NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) SYDNEY NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) X( 6) HALIFAX NS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) X( 8) X( 8) YARMOUTH NS 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) X(10) X(10) MONCTON NB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ST JOHN NB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) EASTPORT ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) HYANNIS MA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) NANTUCKET MA 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) $$ FORECASTER AVILA
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Tropical Depression Six Forecast Advisory Number 5
2019-08-27 22:33:55| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC TUE AUG 27 2019 000 WTNT21 KNHC 272033 TCMAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062019 2100 UTC TUE AUG 27 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.8N 71.8W AT 27/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 35 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 344 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.8N 71.8W AT 27/2100Z AT 27/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.5N 71.7W FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 32.7N 72.1W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 35.0N 72.2W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 90SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 38.0N 70.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 90SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 41.5N 67.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.8N 71.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/0300Z $$ FORECASTER AVILA
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Summary for Tropical Depression Six (AT1/AL062019)
2019-08-27 22:33:54| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWARD AND NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC... As of 5:00 PM EDT Tue Aug 27 the center of Six was located near 31.8, -71.8 with movement NNW at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1008 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression Six Public Advisory Number 5
2019-08-27 22:33:54| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM EDT Tue Aug 27 2019 000 WTNT31 KNHC 272033 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Six Advisory Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062019 500 PM EDT Tue Aug 27 2019 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWARD AND NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC... SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...31.8N 71.8W ABOUT 410 MI...660 KM W OF BERMUDA ABOUT 315 MI...510 KM SE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 344 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Six was located near latitude 31.8 North, longitude 71.8 West. The depression is moving toward the north-northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h), but the cyclone should begin to move generally northward and then northeastward on Wednesday with an increase in forward speed. Maximum sustained winds remain near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. The cyclone is forecast to become a tropical storm on Wednesday, but it should begin to acquire extratropical characteristics and weaken on Thursday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Avila
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