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Tropical Depression Six Graphics
2019-08-27 16:35:20| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 27 Aug 2019 14:35:20 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 27 Aug 2019 15:32:02 GMT
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Tropical Depression Six Forecast Discussion Number 4
2019-08-27 16:34:21| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM EDT Tue Aug 27 2019 000 WTNT41 KNHC 271434 TCDAT1 Tropical Depression Six Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062019 1100 AM EDT Tue Aug 27 2019 The cloud pattern has improved a little since yesterday, and in fact, it looks more tropical on satellite today. The depression, however, continues to be sheared with the low-level center to the north of the convection. Satellite estimates from TAFB and SAB still support an initial intensity of 30 kt. The northwesterly shear currently affecting the depression is expected to continue, and only a small increase in intensity is anticipated in the next couple of days. After that time, the shear will increase as a mid-latitude trough approaches from the west, and the circulation will be over cooler waters. This should favor the cyclone to become extratropical and then become absorbed by a larger extratropical low by the end of the forecast period. The depression has been moving very little, and it appears that during the past couple hours it has been meandering northward at about 2 kt. No significant motion is expected today with a slow north-northwestward or northward drift beginning tonight. In about a day, the southwesterly flow ahead of the approaching mid-latitude trough should steer the cyclone northeastward with increasing forward speed over the North Atlantic. The NHC track forecast is very close to the multimodel consensus TVCA and not significantly different from the previous official forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/1500Z 31.2N 71.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 28/0000Z 31.3N 71.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 28/1200Z 32.9N 71.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 29/0000Z 35.0N 70.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 29/1200Z 38.0N 68.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 30/1200Z 44.5N 60.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 31/1200Z 50.0N 52.6W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 01/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Avila
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Summary for Tropical Depression Six (AT1/AL062019)
2019-08-27 16:33:51| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION MOVING LITTLE... ...FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWARD AND NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC... As of 11:00 AM EDT Tue Aug 27 the center of Six was located near 31.2, -71.2 with movement N at 2 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1008 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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at1al062019
Tropical Depression Six Public Advisory Number 4
2019-08-27 16:33:51| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM EDT Tue Aug 27 2019 000 WTNT31 KNHC 271433 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Six Advisory Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062019 1100 AM EDT Tue Aug 27 2019 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION MOVING LITTLE... ...FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWARD AND NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...31.2N 71.2W ABOUT 385 MI...615 KM W OF BERMUDA ABOUT 370 MI...600 KM SE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Six was located near latitude 31.2 North, longitude 71.2 West. The depression has been drifting northward near 2 mph (4 km/h), and little motion is anticipated today. The cyclone should begin to move generally northward and then northeastward on Wednesday with an increase in forward speed. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is expected, and the cyclone is forecast to become a tropical storm later tonight or on Wednesday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Avila
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Tropical Depression Six Wind Speed Probabilities Number 4
2019-08-27 16:33:51| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC TUE AUG 27 2019 000 FONT11 KNHC 271433 PWSAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062019 1500 UTC TUE AUG 27 2019 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 71.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT HIBERNIA OILFD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) CAPE RACE NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 12(14) X(14) ILE ST PIERRE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 12(17) X(17) ILE ST PIERRE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) BURGEO NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 9(12) X(12) PTX BASQUES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 5( 9) X( 9) EDDY POINT NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) SYDNEY NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 3(10) X(10) SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 17(17) 4(21) X(21) SABLE ISLAND 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) HALIFAX NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) YARMOUTH NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) NANTUCKET MA 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER AVILA
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