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Tropical Depression Six Forecast Advisory Number 3

2019-08-27 10:43:18| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0900 UTC TUE AUG 27 2019 000 WTNT21 KNHC 270843 TCMAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062019 0900 UTC TUE AUG 27 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.0N 71.6W AT 27/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 35 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST OR 125 DEGREES AT 2 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1010 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.0N 71.6W AT 27/0900Z AT 27/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.1N 71.8W FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 31.4N 71.6W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 32.5N 71.7W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 90SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 34.1N 71.4W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 120SE 60SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 36.7N 69.9W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 120SE 60SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 42.9N 63.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 120SE 60SW 0NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 31/0600Z 49.8N 55.6W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 01/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.0N 71.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/1500Z $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS

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Tropical Depression Six Wind Speed Probabilities Number 3

2019-08-27 10:43:18| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0900 UTC TUE AUG 27 2019 000 FONT11 KNHC 270843 PWSAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062019 0900 UTC TUE AUG 27 2019 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 71.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CAPE RACE NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) X( 8) ILE ST PIERRE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 14(15) X(15) BURGEO NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) X(13) PTX BASQUES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) X(12) EDDY POINT NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) X( 7) SYDNEY NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 9(13) X(13) SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 9(18) X(18) SABLE ISLAND 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) HALIFAX NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) X( 7) YARMOUTH NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) MONCTON NB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) ST JOHN NB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) HYANNIS MA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) NANTUCKET MA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS

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Tropical Depression Six Graphics

2019-08-27 04:41:09| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 27 Aug 2019 02:41:09 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 27 Aug 2019 03:31:55 GMT

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Tropical Depression Six Forecast Discussion Number 2

2019-08-27 04:39:52| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 PM EDT Mon Aug 26 2019 000 WTNT41 KNHC 270239 TCDAT1 Tropical Depression Six Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062019 1100 PM EDT Mon Aug 26 2019 The depression remains poorly organized this evening with the edge of the cyclone's deep convection displaced nearly 90 n mi southeast of the low level center due to northwesterly shear. A recent scatterometer pass indicates an initial intensity of 30 kt, with winds of 25 kt or greater being confined to the southeastern quadrant. The low level center has been drifting eastward this evening and the initial motion is 100/3 kt. The steering flow surrounding the cyclone is expected to stay weak for the next 24 hours, resulting in a slow, erratic motion. After 24 hours, a mid-latitude trough crossing the eastern United States will accelerate the system to the northeast, keeping it well to the east of the United States coast. The latest forecast is similar to the previous one, and near the corrected consensus HCCA. The wind shear over the depression is forecast to decrease somewhat over the next 48 hours while the system remains over warm waters. This should allow for the depression to intensify into a tropical storm during that time. After 48 hours, strong upper level southwesterly winds ahead of the approaching mid-latitude trough should initiate a gradual extratropical transition of the cyclone. After 96 hours, the cyclone is expected to be absorbed by a larger system embedded in the westerlies. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/0300Z 31.5N 72.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 27/1200Z 31.6N 72.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 28/0000Z 32.1N 71.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 28/1200Z 33.4N 71.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 29/0000Z 35.5N 70.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 30/0000Z 41.3N 65.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 31/0000Z 48.1N 57.8W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 01/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Latto/Pasch

Tags: number discussion tropical depression

 

Tropical Depression Six Wind Speed Probabilities Number 2

2019-08-27 04:39:16| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0300 UTC TUE AUG 27 2019 000 FONT11 KNHC 270239 PWSAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062019 0300 UTC TUE AUG 27 2019 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 72.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CAPE RACE NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) X( 9) ILE ST PIERRE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 17(17) X(17) BURGEO NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 19(19) X(19) PTX BASQUES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 18(18) X(18) PTX BASQUES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) EDDY POINT NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) X(12) SYDNEY NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 19(20) X(20) SYDNEY NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 19(24) X(24) SABLE ISLAND 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) HALIFAX NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) X(10) YARMOUTH NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 3( 9) X( 9) MONCTON NB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) ST JOHN NB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) EASTPORT ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) HYANNIS MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) NANTUCKET MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) $$ FORECASTER LATTO/PASCH

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