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Tropical Depression Gil Forecast Discussion Number 5
2019-08-04 16:38:04| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT Sun Aug 04 2019 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 041437 TCDEP3 Tropical Depression Gil Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082019 800 AM PDT Sun Aug 04 2019 Shortly after 1200 UTC, Gil lost all of its central deep convection due to strong southwesterly to westerly shear and entrainment of dry air as per GOES-17 mid-level water vapor imagery. The cyclone now consists of a tight swirl of mainly low clouds, with the nearest convection located more than 150 nmi to the east of the center. The initial intensity has been lowered to 25 kt based on a Dvorak T-number of T1.5/25 kt. Gil is expected to continue to weaken due to the aforementioned adverse conditions, degenerating into a remnant low later today and dissipating by late Monday. Gil has continued to move westward or 270/09 kt. The shallow cyclone is now embedded within the low-level easterly trade wind flow, and Gil is expected to maintain a general westward motion until dissipation occurs in 36-48 hours. The official track forecast is nearly on top of of the previous advisory track and lies close to a blend of the consensus model TVCE and the ECMWF model. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/1500Z 14.9N 125.3W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 05/0000Z 14.9N 126.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 05/1200Z 14.9N 128.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 06/0000Z 14.9N 131.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 06/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Tropical Depression Gil Wind Speed Probabilities Number 5
2019-08-04 16:38:04| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC SUN AUG 04 2019 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 041437 PWSEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION GIL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082019 1500 UTC SUN AUG 04 2019 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION GIL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 125.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 25 KTS...30 MPH...45 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 130W 34 X 2( 2) 9(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Summary for Tropical Depression Gil (EP3/EP082019)
2019-08-04 16:37:33| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...GIL EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO A REMNANT LOW LATER TODAY... As of 8:00 AM PDT Sun Aug 4 the center of Gil was located near 14.9, -125.3 with movement W at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1009 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 30 mph.
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Tropical Depression Gil Public Advisory Number 5
2019-08-04 16:37:33| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT Sun Aug 04 2019 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 041437 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Gil Advisory Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082019 800 AM PDT Sun Aug 04 2019 ...GIL EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO A REMNANT LOW LATER TODAY... SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.9N 125.3W ABOUT 1145 MI...1845 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Gil was located near latitude 14.9 North, longitude 125.3 West. The depression is moving toward the west near 10 mph (17 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue into Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecast during the next day or so, and Gil is expected to become a remnant low later today and dissipate by Monday night. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb (29.80 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Tropical Depression Gil Forecast Advisory Number 5
2019-08-04 16:37:03| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC SUN AUG 04 2019 129 WTPZ23 KNHC 041436 TCMEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION GIL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082019 1500 UTC SUN AUG 04 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 125.3W AT 04/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 125.3W AT 04/1500Z AT 04/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 124.9W FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 14.9N 126.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 14.9N 128.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 14.9N 131.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.9N 125.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/2100Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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