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Tropical Depression Gil Forecast Advisory Number 4

2019-08-04 10:42:01| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 0900 UTC SUN AUG 04 2019 989 WTPZ23 KNHC 040841 TCMEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION GIL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082019 0900 UTC SUN AUG 04 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 124.4W AT 04/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 124.4W AT 04/0900Z AT 04/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 124.0W FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 15.1N 125.8W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 15.2N 127.8W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 15.1N 130.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.9N 124.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN

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Tropical Depression Eight-E Forecast Discussion Number 1

2019-08-03 17:12:47| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 800 AM PDT Sat Aug 03 2019 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 031512 TCDEP3 Tropical Depression Eight-E Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082019 800 AM PDT Sat Aug 03 2019 First light visible satellite images indicate that the disturbance over the open eastern Pacific has developed a well-defined center just west of an area of concentrated deep convection. Based on this, advisories have been initiated for Tropical Depression Eight-E. An earlier scatterometer pass measured winds of about 30 kt, and this is the basis for the initial intensity. Vertical shear of 20-25 kt that is currently displacing convection off to the east of the low-level center is forecast to continue for the next few days as the system moves under the base of a mid- to upper-level trough. This shear is expected to prevent any strengthening of the cyclone in the near term. In addition to the shear, the depression will move into a drier airmass and begin to move over more marginal SSTs in about 24 hours. This should result in weakening and the depression is expected to dissipate in a couple of days. Although the depression is currently moving west-northwestward at about 9 kt, all of the global models forecast that it will turn westward later today, steered primarily by low-level easterly winds. The cyclone should then continue westward for the next day or two until it dissipates. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/1500Z 14.7N 121.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 04/0000Z 15.4N 122.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 04/1200Z 15.7N 124.6W 25 KT 30 MPH 36H 05/0000Z 15.9N 126.7W 20 KT 25 MPH 48H 05/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Latto/Beven/Zelinsky

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Tropical Depression Eight-E Wind Speed Probabilities Number 1

2019-08-03 16:59:48| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 1500 UTC SAT AUG 03 2019 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 031459 PWSEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082019 1500 UTC SAT AUG 03 2019 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 121.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 125W 34 X 7( 7) 3(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) $$ FORECASTER LATTO

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Tropical Depression Eight-E Graphics

2019-08-03 16:59:39| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 03 Aug 2019 14:59:39 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 03 Aug 2019 15:37:21 GMT

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Summary for Tropical Depression Eight-E (EP3/EP082019)

2019-08-03 16:58:19| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

...NEW DEPRESSION FORMS OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC... As of 8:00 AM PDT Sat Aug 3 the center of Eight-E was located near 14.7, -121.2 with movement WNW at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1009 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

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