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Tropical Depression Ten-E Wind Speed Probabilities Number 1

2019-08-21 16:50:45| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 1500 UTC WED AUG 21 2019 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 211450 PWSEP5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102019 1500 UTC WED AUG 21 2019 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 107.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT IS GUADALUPE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) PUNTA EUGENIA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 15N 110W 34 16 11(27) 2(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) 20N 110W 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X 7( 7) 5(12) 3(15) 1(16) X(16) X(16) ISLA CLARION 34 X 3( 3) 47(50) 30(80) 5(85) X(85) X(85) ISLA CLARION 50 X X( X) 12(12) 26(38) 5(43) X(43) X(43) ISLA CLARION 64 X X( X) 2( 2) 13(15) 3(18) X(18) X(18) 15N 115W 34 X 2( 2) 10(12) 4(16) 2(18) X(18) X(18) 20N 115W 34 X 1( 1) 12(13) 31(44) 16(60) 1(61) X(61) 20N 115W 50 X X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 11(20) X(20) X(20) 20N 115W 64 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) X( 7) X( 7) 25N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 6(10) 1(11) 20N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 15(18) 4(22) 1(23) 20N 120W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) 25N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 16(18) 8(26) 25N 120W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) 25N 120W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 30N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 25N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) $$ FORECASTER LATTO/PASCH

Tags: number speed wind tropical

 

Summary for Tropical Depression Ten-E (EP5/EP102019)

2019-08-21 16:50:44| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION DEVELOPS OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY... As of 9:00 AM MDT Wed Aug 21 the center of Ten-E was located near 15.4, -107.3 with movement WNW at 18 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

Tags: summary tropical depression tropical depression

 
 

Tropical Depression Ten-E Public Advisory Number 1

2019-08-21 16:50:44| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 900 AM MDT Wed Aug 21 2019 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 211450 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Ten-E Advisory Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102019 900 AM MDT Wed Aug 21 2019 ...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION DEVELOPS OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY... SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.4N 107.3W ABOUT 545 MI...875 KM SSE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Ten-E was located near latitude 15.4 North, longitude 107.3 West. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 18 mph (30 km/h). A turn to the northwest along with a decrease in forward speed is expected by Thursday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Steady strengthening is forecast for the next couple of days and the depression is expected to become a tropical storm by tonight, and a hurricane by Friday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Latto/Pasch

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Tropical Depression Ten-E Forecast Advisory Number 1

2019-08-21 16:49:11| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 1500 UTC WED AUG 21 2019 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 211449 TCMEP5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102019 1500 UTC WED AUG 21 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.4N 107.3W AT 21/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 16 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.4N 107.3W AT 21/1500Z AT 21/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 106.5W FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 15.9N 109.6W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 16.6N 112.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 17.5N 114.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 60SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 18.5N 115.4W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 80SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 21.0N 117.1W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 80SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 25/1200Z 24.4N 118.7W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 26/1200Z 27.6N 120.9W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.4N 107.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/2100Z $$ FORECASTER LATTO/PASCH

Tags: number advisory tropical depression

 

Tropical Depression Henriette Wind Speed Probabilities Number 6

2019-08-13 10:32:42| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 0900 UTC TUE AUG 13 2019 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 130832 PWSEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION HENRIETTE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092019 0900 UTC TUE AUG 13 2019 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION HENRIETTE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 115.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 25 KTS...30 MPH...45 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BROWN

Tags: number speed wind tropical

 

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