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Tropical Depression Nine-E Public Advisory Number 1
2019-08-12 04:48:24| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 PM MDT Sun Aug 11 2019 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 120248 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Nine-E Advisory Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092019 900 PM MDT Sun Aug 11 2019 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS WELL SOUTH OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR... SUMMARY OF 900 PM MDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.9N 109.8W ABOUT 275 MI...445 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 PM MDT (0300 UTC), the center of newly formed Tropical Depression Nine-E was located near latitude 18.9 North, longitude 109.8 West. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slight strengthening will be possible for the next day or so, and the depression could become a tropical storm on Monday. Weakening is expected on Tuesday and the system forecast to become a remnant low by late Tuesday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 AM MDT. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Tropical Depression Nine-E Wind Speed Probabilities Number 1
2019-08-12 04:48:24| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC MON AUG 12 2019 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 120248 PWSEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092019 0300 UTC MON AUG 12 2019 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 109.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 20N 110W 34 5 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) ISLA SOCORRO 34 27 4(31) X(31) X(31) X(31) X(31) X(31) ISLA CLARION 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 115W 34 X 4( 4) 16(20) 1(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) 20N 115W 50 X X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 25N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Tropical Depression Nine-E Forecast Advisory Number 1
2019-08-12 04:47:56| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC MON AUG 12 2019 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 120247 TCMEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092019 0300 UTC MON AUG 12 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.9N 109.8W AT 12/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.9N 109.8W AT 12/0300Z AT 12/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.7N 109.2W FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 19.4N 111.2W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 20.3N 113.1W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 21.3N 115.3W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 22.1N 117.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 23.7N 123.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 16/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.9N 109.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/0900Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Tropical Depression Gil Graphics
2019-08-04 22:48:35| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 04 Aug 2019 20:48:35 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 04 Aug 2019 20:48:35 GMT
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gil
Tropical Depression Gil Forecast Discussion Number 6
2019-08-04 22:39:09| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT Sun Aug 04 2019 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 042039 TCDEP3 Tropical Depression Gil Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082019 200 PM PDT Sun Aug 04 2019 Gil has been devoid of deep convection for about 9 hours now, and if convection does return soon, then the system will be declared a post-tropical remnant low on the next advisory. The initial intensity of 25 kt is based on a Dvorak T-number of T1.5/25 kt from TAFB and a 25-kt surface wind vector in a recent 1835Z ASCAT-B scatterometer edge pass that caught the northwestern portion of the circulation. Continued weakening is expected after Gil's post-tropical transistion, and the system will likely dissipate by late Monday. The initial motion estimate remains 270/09 kt. Gil is embedded within the easterly trade wind flow, and the cyclone is forecast to maintain a general westward motion until dissipation occurs in 36 hours or so. The official track forecast is just an extension of the previous advisory track and lies close to the consensus model TVCE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/2100Z 15.0N 126.3W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 05/0600Z 15.0N 127.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 05/1800Z 15.0N 129.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 06/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Stewart
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