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Tropical Depression Chantal Wind Speed Probabilities Number 6
2019-08-22 10:42:20| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC THU AUG 22 2019 000 FONT14 KNHC 220842 PWSAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CHANTAL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042019 0900 UTC THU AUG 22 2019 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION CHANTAL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 39.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 45.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BERG
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Tropical Depression Chantal Forecast Advisory Number 6
2019-08-22 10:41:52| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC THU AUG 22 2019 000 WTNT24 KNHC 220841 TCMAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CHANTAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042019 0900 UTC THU AUG 22 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 39.1N 45.7W AT 22/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR 100 DEGREES AT 15 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1010 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. 12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 70SE 70SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 39.1N 45.7W AT 22/0900Z AT 22/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 39.3N 46.4W FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 38.4N 43.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 37.3N 41.8W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 36.3N 41.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 35.6N 41.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 36.2N 43.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 26/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 39.1N 45.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BERG
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Tropical Depression Chantal Graphics
2019-08-22 04:33:57| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 22 Aug 2019 02:33:57 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 22 Aug 2019 02:33:57 GMT
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tropical depression
Tropical Depression Chantal Forecast Discussion Number 5
2019-08-22 04:32:43| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Wed Aug 21 2019 000 WTNT44 KNHC 220232 TCDAT4 Tropical Depression Chantal Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042019 1100 PM AST Wed Aug 21 2019 Chantal's cloud pattern has become quite ragged during the past several hours with a shrinking intermittently bursting convective mass remaining sheared to the east of the surface center. The initial intensity is lowered to 30 kt and is in agreement with a recent 0020 UTC ASCAT-A overpass and the subjective satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB. There are no changes to the philosophy of the intensity forecast. Further weakening is forecast through the period as the depression continues moving through an inhibiting, high statically stable surrounding environment. The official forecast calls for Chantal to degenerate into a remnant low by Friday night, if not sooner, and is based primarily on the deterministic models. The initial motion is estimated to be east-southeastward, or 105/16 kt, within the deep-layer mid-latitude westerlies. Chantal is forecast to turn southeastward to southward, around the eastern periphery of a subtropical high, with a reduction in forward speed, over the next couple of days. By Saturday night, the remnants of Chantal is likely to turn toward the west-northwest as high pressure near the Azores Islands builds to the east of the cyclone. The NHC track forecast is a compromise of the TVCA multi-model guidance and the NOAA HFIP corrected consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/0300Z 39.4N 47.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 22/1200Z 38.8N 44.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 23/0000Z 37.9N 42.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 23/1200Z 36.8N 41.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 24/0000Z 35.9N 41.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 25/0000Z 35.8N 42.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 26/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Roberts
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depression
Tropical Depression Chantal Wind Speed Probabilities Number 5
2019-08-22 04:32:43| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC THU AUG 22 2019 000 FONT14 KNHC 220232 PWSAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CHANTAL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042019 0300 UTC THU AUG 22 2019 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION CHANTAL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 39.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 47.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS
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