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Summary for Tropical Depression Chantal (AT4/AL042019)
2019-08-22 04:32:09| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...CHANTAL WEAKENS TO A DEPRESSION... As of 11:00 PM AST Wed Aug 21 the center of Chantal was located near 39.4, -47.4 with movement ESE at 18 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1010 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression Chantal Public Advisory Number 5
2019-08-22 04:32:09| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Wed Aug 21 2019 255 WTNT34 KNHC 220232 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Chantal Advisory Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042019 1100 PM AST Wed Aug 21 2019 ...CHANTAL WEAKENS TO A DEPRESSION... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...39.4N 47.4W ABOUT 580 MI...935 KM SSE OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...ESE OR 105 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB...29.83 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Chantal was located near latitude 39.4 North, longitude 47.4 West. The depression is moving toward the east-southeast near 18 mph (30 km/h), and a turn toward the southeast with a decrease in forward speed is expected by Friday. Chantal is forecast to slow further and turn southward Friday night then drift clock-wise southwestward to west-northwestward over the weekend. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Further weakening is anticipated, and Chantal is forecast to become a post-tropical remnant low by Friday night. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1010 mb (29.83 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Roberts
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Tropical Depression Chantal Forecast Advisory Number 5
2019-08-22 04:32:09| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC THU AUG 22 2019 254 WTNT24 KNHC 220232 TCMAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CHANTAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042019 0300 UTC THU AUG 22 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 39.4N 47.4W AT 22/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-SOUTHEAST OR 105 DEGREES AT 16 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1010 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. 12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 70SE 70SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 39.4N 47.4W AT 22/0300Z AT 22/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 39.6N 48.3W FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 38.8N 44.9W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 37.9N 42.6W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 36.8N 41.4W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 35.9N 41.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 35.8N 42.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 26/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 39.4N 47.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/0900Z $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS
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Tropical Depression Ten-E Graphics
2019-08-21 16:52:25| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 21 Aug 2019 14:52:25 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 21 Aug 2019 14:52:25 GMT
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Tropical Depression Ten-E Forecast Discussion Number 1
2019-08-21 16:51:47| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 AM MDT Wed Aug 21 2019 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 211451 TCDEP5 Tropical Depression Ten-E Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102019 900 AM MDT Wed Aug 21 2019 Satellite imagery and microwave data indicate that the disturbance that has been tracked to the south of Mexico for the past several days has become much better organized since yesterday. An early morning scatterometer pass showed a nearly closed surface low with peak winds of 30 kt. Since that time, the appearance of the disturbance has continued to improve, suggesting that the low has most likely closed at the surface. Based on this data, advisories are being initiated for Tropical Depression 10-E. Subjective Dvorak estimates from both TAFB and SAB suggest a 30 kt intensity, which will be the initial intensity for this advisory. The depression's initial motion is 285/16 kt. The cyclone is being steered to the south of a mid-level ridge that extends from northwestern Mexico across much of the eastern Pacific. Model guidance is in good agreement that a weakness will develop in this ridge over the next day or so to the northwest of the depression. This should cause the system to make a turn to the northwest with a decrease in forward speed in about 24 hours. The depression is then forecast to continue to move northwest through the remainder of the forecast period. The cyclone is expected to move over very warm waters of around 30 C, through a moist environment, and with 10-15 kt of northeasterly shear over the next 48 hours. With these conditions, steady strengthening is forecast during that time frame, and the depression is expected to become a tropical storm later today, and a minimal hurricane in 48 hours. The official forecast is close to the model intensity guidance consensus through 24 hours, and is then on the higher end of the guidance from 24 to 72 hours out of respect for a possible decrease in shear. In a few days the cyclone will move over much cooler waters and into a stable air mass while undergoing increasing shear. This will cause the cyclone to weaken and it is expected to become a convection-free post-tropical cyclone by day 5. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/1500Z 15.4N 107.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 22/0000Z 15.9N 109.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 22/1200Z 16.6N 112.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 23/0000Z 17.5N 114.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 23/1200Z 18.5N 115.4W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 24/1200Z 21.0N 117.1W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 25/1200Z 24.4N 118.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 26/1200Z 27.6N 120.9W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL $$ Forecaster Latto/Pasch
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