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Tropical Depression Twenty-Four-E Graphics
2018-10-20 11:06:18| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 20 Oct 2018 09:06:18 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 20 Oct 2018 09:28:03 GMT
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Tropical Depression Twenty-Four-E Forecast Discussion Number 1
2018-10-20 11:06:03| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Sat Oct 20 2018 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 200905 CCA TCDEP4 Tropical Depression Twenty-Four-E Discussion Number 1...Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP242018 400 AM CDT Sat Oct 20 2018 Corrected advisory number from 2 to 1 Various satellite data indicate that the area of low pressure that NHC has been monitoring off the coast of southern Mexico for thew past few days has acquired enough convective organization to be designated as a tropical depression, the twenty-fourth one of the very busy 2018 eastern North Pacific hurricane season. Although the depression is a sheared system, some banding features have recently developed south of the center, while overshooting cloud tops just west of the center are quite cold -85 to -91 deg C). The initial intensity is set to 30 kt based on a satellite intensity estimate of T2.0/30 kt from both TAFB and SAB. The initial motion estimate is 280/08 kt, based primarily on passive microwave fixes and GOES-16 nighttime imagery. A gradual turn toward the west-northwest is expected by this afternoon, followed by a slower northwestward motion on Sunday as the system moves along the southwestern periphery of a weakening mid-level ridge. A slow northwestward motion is expected to continue into early next week while the ridge to the north changes little. On days 4 and 5, however, a series of weak shortwave troughs are forecast to move through the larger scale southwesterly flow locked in over the southwestern U.S. and northern Mexico, causing an erosion of the western portion of the ridge, which should allow the cyclone to gradually recurve northward and north-northeastward. The NHC model guidance is in good agreement overall on this developing track scenario, and the official forecast track lies between the HCCA and TVCE track consensus aids. The depression is expected to steadily strengthen during the next 96 hours due to very favorable environmental conditions consisting of low vertical wind shear (less than 10 kt), high amounts of mid-level moisture, and warm 28-30 deg C SSTs. As a result, the cyclone is expected to become a tropical storm later this morning, a hurricane by Sunday night, and be near major hurricane strength by Wednesday. Given the very favorable conditions expected on Sunday and Monday, there is a fair chance of rapid intensification occurring similar to that depicted by the COAMPS-TC and HMON models, which bring the cyclone to category-4 status around 72 hours. The NHC official intensity forecast near the HCCA and IVCN consensus models through 96 hours, and then a little above the guidance at 120 hours despite an increase in the shear expected at that time. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/0900Z 15.1N 104.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 20/1800Z 15.5N 105.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 21/0600Z 15.9N 106.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 21/1800Z 16.5N 107.4W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 22/0600Z 17.1N 108.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 23/0600Z 18.0N 109.0W 90 KT 105 MPH 96H 24/0600Z 19.2N 109.4W 100 KT 115 MPH 120H 25/0600Z 21.7N 108.5W 95 KT 110 MPH $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Tropical Depression Twenty-Four-E Wind Speed Probabilities Number 1
2018-10-20 11:04:31| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC SAT OCT 20 2018 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 200904 CCA PWSEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-FOUR-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP242018...CORRECTED 0900 UTC SAT OCT 20 2018 CORRECTED ADVISORY NUMBER FROM 2 TO 1 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-FOUR-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 104.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT P ABREOJOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 18(23) 17(40) CABO SAN LUCAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 10(16) CABO SAN LUCAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) SAN JOSE CABO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) 15(26) SAN JOSE CABO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 6(10) SAN JOSE CABO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) LA PAZ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 11(18) LA PAZ 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) LA PAZ 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) LORETO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) BAHIA KINO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) GUAYMAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) HUATABAMPO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) LOS MOCHIS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) LOS MOCHIS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) CULIACAN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 12(15) CULIACAN 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) CULIACAN 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) ISLAS MARIAS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 9(13) 12(25) 13(38) ISLAS MARIAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 6(12) ISLAS MARIAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) MAZATLAN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 14(20) MAZATLAN 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) MAZATLAN 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) SAN BLAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 5( 9) 9(18) SAN BLAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) SAN BLAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) P VALLARTA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) 7(12) 6(18) P VALLARTA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) P VALLARTA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 15N 105W 34 62 3(65) 2(67) 1(68) 1(69) 1(70) 1(71) 15N 105W 50 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) 1( 5) 15N 105W 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) BARRA NAVIDAD 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 4( 7) 4(11) 4(15) BARRA NAVIDAD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) MANZANILLO 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) 5(10) 6(16) 4(20) 4(24) MANZANILLO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) L CARDENAS 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) 1( 7) ZIHUATANEJO 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 15N 110W 34 X 2( 2) 6( 8) 9(17) 11(28) 7(35) 3(38) 15N 110W 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 4( 8) 1( 9) 15N 110W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) 20N 110W 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) 30(39) 19(58) 9(67) 20N 110W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 16(27) 8(35) 20N 110W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 9(13) 5(18) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) 31(40) 18(58) 8(66) ISLA SOCORRO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 14(24) 6(30) ISLA SOCORRO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 9(13) 4(17) ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) 3(11) ISLA CLARION 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) ISLA CLARION 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 15N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) 20N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 4(10) 20N 115W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 25N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Summary for Tropical Depression Twenty-Four-E (EP4/EP242018)
2018-10-20 11:03:32| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS WELL SOUTH OF MANZANILLO MEXICO... ...NO THREAT TO LAND OVER THE WEEKEND... As of 4:00 AM CDT Sat Oct 20 the center of Twenty-Four-E was located near 15.1, -104.9 with movement W at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression Twenty-Four-E Public Advisory Number 1
2018-10-20 11:03:32| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Sat Oct 20 2018 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 200903 CCA TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Twenty-Four-E Advisory Number 1...Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP242018 400 AM CDT Sat Oct 20 2018 Corrected advisory number form 2 to 1 ...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS WELL SOUTH OF MANZANILLO MEXICO... ...NO THREAT TO LAND OVER THE WEEKEND... SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.1N 104.9W ABOUT 270 MI...440 KM S OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of newly formed Tropical Depression Twenty-Four-E was located near latitude 15.1 North, longitude 104.9 West. The depression is moving toward the west near 9 mph (15 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue this morning, followed by a turn toward the west-northwest by this afternoon. A motion toward the northwest is forecast on Sunday and Monday, with the tropical cyclone remaining well offshore the southwestern coast of Mexico. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Steady strengthening is forecast during the next few days, and the depression is expected to become a tropical storm later this morning and reach hurricane strength by Sunday night or Monday morning. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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