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Tropical Depression Vicente Wind Speed Probabilities Number 16
2018-10-23 10:38:02| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC TUE OCT 23 2018 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 230837 PWSEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION VICENTE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP232018 0900 UTC TUE OCT 23 2018 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION VICENTE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 102.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BERG
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Summary for Tropical Depression Vicente (EP3/EP232018)
2018-10-23 10:37:56| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...VICENTE WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION... ...EXPECTED TO MOVE INLAND AND DISSIPATE OVER THE MEXICAN STATE OF MICHOACAN LATER TODAY... As of 4:00 AM CDT Tue Oct 23 the center of Vicente was located near 17.2, -102.0 with movement NNW at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression Vicente Public Advisory Number 16
2018-10-23 10:37:56| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Tue Oct 23 2018 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 230837 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Vicente Advisory Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP232018 400 AM CDT Tue Oct 23 2018 ...VICENTE WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION... ...EXPECTED TO MOVE INLAND AND DISSIPATE OVER THE MEXICAN STATE OF MICHOACAN LATER TODAY... SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.2N 102.0W ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM SSE OF LAZARO CARDENAS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests along the southwestern coast of Mexico should monitor the progress of Vicente. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Vicente was located near latitude 17.2 North, longitude 102.0 West. Vicente is moving toward the north-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue today. On the forecast track, the center of Vicente is expected to move inland over the Mexican state of Michoacan later today. Satellite-derived wind data indicate that maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Vicente is expected to dissipate later today or tonight after it has moved inland over Mexico. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Vicente or its remnants are expected to produce 3 to 6 inches of rain with local amounts to 10 inches through today over portions of Guerrero, Michoacan, Colima, and Jalisco in Mexico. This rainfall could produce life-threatening flash flooding and landslides within mountainous terrain. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Berg
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Tropical Depression Vicente Forecast Advisory Number 16
2018-10-23 10:37:29| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC TUE OCT 23 2018 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 230837 TCMEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION VICENTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP232018 0900 UTC TUE OCT 23 2018 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF VICENTE. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 102.0W AT 23/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 102.0W AT 23/0900Z AT 23/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.8N 101.7W FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 19.2N 103.2W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.2N 102.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BERG
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Tropical Depression Twenty-four-E Forecast Advisory Number 1
2018-10-20 13:02:06| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC SAT OCT 20 2018 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 201101 CCB TCMEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-FOUR-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1...CORRECTED NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP242018 0900 UTC SAT OCT 20 2018 CORRECTED HEADER FORMAT THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 104.9W AT 20/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 104.9W AT 20/0900Z AT 20/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 104.5W FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 15.5N 105.7W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 15.9N 106.6W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 16.5N 107.4W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 17.1N 108.0W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 18.0N 109.0W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 80SE 70SW 80NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 24/0600Z 19.2N 109.4W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 25/0600Z 21.7N 108.5W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.1N 104.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/1500Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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