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Tropical Depression One-E Forecast Discussion Number 2
2019-06-26 04:37:12| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 PM MDT Tue Jun 25 2019 286 WTPZ41 KNHC 260237 TCDEP1 Tropical Depression One-E Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP012019 900 PM MDT Tue Jun 25 2019 The cyclone has not yet acquired well-defined convective banding features and the deep convection is rather fragmented at this time, however microwave imagery shows a fairly well-defined inner circulation structure. The initial intensity is set at 30 kt in accord with Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB. Hopefully, we will soon obtain a scatterometer overpass to provide a better estimate of the intensity of the system. The cyclone should move over sufficiently warm waters and within low vertical shear over the next day or so. Therefore some strengthening is forecast until around the 36 hours time frame. Thereafter, increasing south-southwesterly shear, cooler waters, and drier mid-level air should induce weakening. The official intensity forecast is similar to the previous one and very close to the latest model consensus prediction. Based on microwave and geostationary satellite center fixes, a fairly brisk west-northwestward motion, at about 290/13 kt, continues. The primary steering mechanism for the next couple of days will be a mid-level ridge extending westward from northwestern Mexico into the Pacific. The tropical cyclone should gradually slow its forward speed as it nears the western periphery of the ridge. The official track forecast is close to the previous one, and is in agreement with the latest simple and corrected dynamical model consensus solutions. The ECMWF model shows a track at a more southern latitude, but that model's prediction of the cyclone's evolution seems to be unrealistically weak. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 26/0300Z 15.6N 106.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 26/1200Z 15.9N 108.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 27/0000Z 16.3N 111.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 27/1200Z 16.8N 113.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 28/0000Z 17.5N 116.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 29/0000Z 18.6N 119.4W 25 KT 30 MPH 96H 30/0000Z 19.4N 122.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 01/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Tropical Depression One-E Wind Speed Probabilities Number 2
2019-06-26 04:35:45| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC WED JUN 26 2019 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 260235 PWSEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012019 0300 UTC WED JUN 26 2019 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 106.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 110W 34 3 9(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ISLA CLARION 34 X 1( 1) 9(10) 10(20) 1(21) X(21) X(21) ISLA CLARION 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 15N 115W 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 3( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) 20N 115W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 20N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 4(10) X(10) $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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Summary for Tropical Depression One-E (EP1/EP012019)
2019-06-26 04:35:15| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...DEPRESSION EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM ON WEDNESDAY... As of 9:00 PM MDT Tue Jun 25 the center of One-E was located near 15.6, -106.8 with movement WNW at 15 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression One-E Public Advisory Number 2
2019-06-26 04:35:15| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 PM MDT Tue Jun 25 2019 273 WTPZ31 KNHC 260235 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Depression One-E Advisory Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP012019 900 PM MDT Tue Jun 25 2019 ...DEPRESSION EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM ON WEDNESDAY... SUMMARY OF 900 PM MDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.6N 106.8W ABOUT 285 MI...460 KM SW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO ABOUT 545 MI...875 KM SSE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 PM MDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression One-E was located near latitude 15.6 North, longitude 106.8 West. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h) and a west-northwestward to westward motion with some decrease in forward speed is expected over the next few days. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next day or so, and the depression is forecast to become a tropical storm on Wednesday. The system is forecast to begin weakening on Thursday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 AM MDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Tropical Depression One-E Forecast Advisory Number 2
2019-06-26 04:35:15| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC WED JUN 26 2019 272 WTPZ21 KNHC 260235 TCMEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012019 0300 UTC WED JUN 26 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.6N 106.8W AT 26/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.6N 106.8W AT 26/0300Z AT 26/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 106.2W FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 15.9N 108.9W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 30SE 0SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 16.3N 111.6W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 30SE 0SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 16.8N 113.9W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 40SE 20SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 17.5N 116.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 40SE 20SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 18.6N 119.4W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 30/0000Z 19.4N 122.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 01/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.6N 106.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/0900Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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