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Tropical Depression Cosme Forecast Discussion Number 7
2019-07-08 04:31:41| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT Sun Jul 07 2019 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 080231 TCDEP3 Tropical Depression Cosme Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032019 800 PM PDT Sun Jul 07 2019 All of the central convection associated with Cosme dissipated about 5 hours ago, around 2200 UTC, and the cyclone is on its way to becoming a remnant low. Since the core convection has now dissipated, it is assumed that the cyclone's winds have decreased since the last ASCAT pass, which showed an area of 30-35 kt winds. The initial intensity is lowered to 30 kt, making Cosme a tropical depression. This intensity estimate is also in fair agreement with the latest Dvorak classifications from TAFB and automated Dvorak values from CIMSS at the University of Wisconsin. Cosme is currently over cool 24 degree C waters, and it is headed for even cooler waters during the next couple of days. These unfavorable oceanic conditions combined with a dry and stable air mass and an increase in westerly shear should cause the system to degenerate to a remnant low overnight or early Monday and dissipate in two or three days. The tropical depression is moving northwestward at 9 kt. Cosme is expected to slow down and gradually turn toward the left, within the low-level flow, until the system dissipates. The NHC track forecast lies near the middle of the guidance envelope and is just a tad north of the previous advisory track. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/0300Z 19.1N 119.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 08/1200Z 19.8N 120.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 09/0000Z 20.3N 121.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 09/1200Z 20.8N 121.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 10/0000Z 21.3N 122.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 11/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Summary for Tropical Depression Cosme (EP3/EP032019)
2019-07-08 04:31:07| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...COSME WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW SOON... As of 8:00 PM PDT Sun Jul 7 the center of Cosme was located near 19.1, -119.5 with movement NW at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression Alvin Graphics
2019-06-29 10:35:21| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 29 Jun 2019 08:35:21 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 29 Jun 2019 09:24:11 GMT
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alvin
Tropical Depression Alvin Forecast Discussion Number 15
2019-06-29 10:34:29| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT Sat Jun 29 2019 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 290834 TCDEP1 Tropical Depression Alvin Discussion Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP012019 200 AM PDT Sat Jun 29 2019 Alvin has become a swirl of low and mid-level clouds as strong shear and cooler waters have caused a rapid demise of the tropical cyclone. The initial intensity has been lowered to 25 kt, and is based on the latest Dvorak T-numbers. The hostile environmental conditions should continue to cause the cyclone to weaken today, and the system should degenerate into a remnant low later this morning. As expected, Alvin has slowed down and turned west-northwestward, with an initial motion estimate of 290/7 kt. Now that Alvin has become a vertically shallow system, a slow westward to west- northwestward motion within the low-level trade wind flow is forecast until dissipation occurs. The NHC forecast track lies along the southern edge of the guidance envelope and is in best agreement with the latest ECMWF. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/0900Z 20.3N 119.9W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 29/1800Z 20.6N 121.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 30/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown
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Summary for Tropical Depression Alvin (EP1/EP012019)
2019-06-29 10:33:58| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...ALVIN WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION... As of 2:00 AM PDT Sat Jun 29 the center of Alvin was located near 20.3, -119.9 with movement WNW at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 30 mph.
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