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Tropical Depression Alvin Public Advisory Number 15
2019-06-29 10:33:58| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT Sat Jun 29 2019 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 290833 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Alvin Advisory Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP012019 200 AM PDT Sat Jun 29 2019 ...ALVIN WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION... SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.3N 119.9W ABOUT 665 MI...1075 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Alvin was located near latitude 20.3 North, longitude 119.9 West. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h). A west-northwestward to westward motion is expected today. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts. Continued weakening is forecast, and Alvin is expected to decay to a remnant low later this morning and then dissipate tonight. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Brown
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Tropical Depression Alvin Wind Speed Probabilities Number 15
2019-06-29 10:33:58| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC SAT JUN 29 2019 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 290833 PWSEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALVIN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012019 0900 UTC SAT JUN 29 2019 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALVIN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 119.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 25 KTS...30 MPH...45 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Tropical Depression Alvin Forecast Advisory Number 15
2019-06-29 10:33:29| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC SAT JUN 29 2019 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 290833 TCMEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALVIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012019 0900 UTC SAT JUN 29 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.3N 119.9W AT 29/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. 12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.3N 119.9W AT 29/0900Z AT 29/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.1N 119.6W FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 20.6N 121.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.3N 119.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Tropical Depression One-E Graphics
2019-06-26 10:35:33| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 26 Jun 2019 08:35:33 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 26 Jun 2019 09:24:16 GMT
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Tropical Depression One-E Forecast Discussion Number 3
2019-06-26 10:34:19| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 AM MDT Wed Jun 26 2019 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 260834 TCDEP1 Tropical Depression One-E Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP012019 300 AM MDT Wed Jun 26 2019 The overall convective pattern of the cyclone has changed little since the previous advisory. However, passive microwave images indicate that the low-level center has become less distinct and that the inner-core convection has become ragged. In addition, the coldest cloud tops have migrated from north through east to now south of the center during the past 12 hours, another indication that the inner-core of the depression is undergoing some structural changes. Although no ASCAT wind data are available over the cyclone's core, a 0417Z ASCAT-C pass did catch the western portion of the circulation and only showed northerly winds of 5-10 kt within 30 nmi of the center, which suggests that the surface wind field might not be as well developed as the circulation aloft is. The initial position and the 275/13-kt motion are based on a blend of microwave and conventional fixes, and also continuity with the previous motion vector. The latest track model guidance is in decent agreement on a westward to west-northwestward motion accompanied by a gradual decrease in forward speed over the next few days as a strong deep-layer subtropical ridge holds steady to the north of the cyclone. The new NHC track forecast is similar to but south of the previous advisory track, mainly due to the more southerly initial position. As mentioned in the previous forecast package, the 00Z ECMWF model continues to show a more southward dip in the track during the next 24 h. That is a viable alternate track scenario if the center redevelops farther south closer to the coldest overshooting cloud tops later this morning. There is a narrow window of opportunity for the system to strengthen into a tropical storm during the next 24 h or so while the cyclone remains over warm water and in low vertical wind shear conditions. By 36-48 hours, the cyclone is expected to move over sub-26C SSTs and into a more stable environment that is not conducive for generating vigorous convection despite the favorable low-shear conditions forecast at that time. The combination of cooler waters, drier mid-level air, and increasing southwesterly wind shear shear are expected to induce steady weakening in 48-96 hours, with dissipation forecast by 120 h. The official intensity forecast is similar to the previous advisory, and follows the IVCN and ICON intensity consensus models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 26/0900Z 15.5N 108.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 26/1800Z 15.6N 110.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 27/0600Z 15.8N 112.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 27/1800Z 16.4N 114.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 28/0600Z 17.0N 116.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 29/0600Z 18.1N 120.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 30/0600Z 18.8N 123.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 01/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Stewart
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