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Tropical Depression Willa Forecast Discussion Number 17
2018-10-24 10:33:36| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Wed Oct 24 2018 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 240833 TCDEP4 Tropical Depression Willa Discussion Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP242018 400 AM CDT Wed Oct 24 2018 Satellite images and surface observations indicate that Willa is located well inland over the eastern portion of the Mexican state of Durango. Deep-layer southwesterly flow ahead of a mid-latitude trough will continue to drive the mid and upper-level circulations to the northeast and farther inland, with the low-level circulation shearing away and lagging back to the southwest due to the blocking high terrain of west-central and northern Mexico. A 12-hour forecast position has been provided for continuity purposes, which reflects where the mid-level circulation center is expected to be since the cyclone will likely have dissipated by then. Although Willa has weakened to a tropical depression, wind speeds atop and on the windward sides of hills and mountains are often up to 30 percent stronger than the near-surface winds indicated in this advisory. Therefore, strong tropical-storm-force winds gusts will still be possible this morning, especially in stronger thunderstorms occurring to the east and south of the center. Key Messages: 1. Storm surge will subside this morning along the coasts of southern Sinaloa and Nayarit states in west-central and southwestern Mexico. 2. Heavy rainfall from Willa is likely to produce life-threatening flash flooding and landslides over much of southwestern and west-central Mexico. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/0900Z 24.4N 103.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 12H 24/1800Z 26.0N 100.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 24H 25/0600Z...DISSIPATED INLAND $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Tropical Depression Willa Wind Speed Probabilities Number 17
2018-10-24 10:32:36| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC WED OCT 24 2018 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 240832 PWSEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION WILLA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP242018 0900 UTC WED OCT 24 2018 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION WILLA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 103.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Tropical Depression Willa Forecast Advisory Number 17
2018-10-24 10:32:04| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC WED OCT 24 2018 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 240831 TCMEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION WILLA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP242018 0900 UTC WED OCT 24 2018 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.4N 103.6W AT 24/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 55 DEGREES AT 22 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.4N 103.6W AT 24/0900Z AT 24/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.8N 104.6W FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 26.0N 100.5W...POST-TROP/REMNANT LOW INLAND MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z...DISSIPATED INLAND NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/1500Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Tropical Depression Vicente Graphics
2018-10-23 10:39:21| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 23 Oct 2018 08:39:21 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 23 Oct 2018 09:21:50 GMT
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Tropical Depression Vicente Forecast Discussion Number 16
2018-10-23 10:38:30| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Tue Oct 23 2018 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 230838 TCDEP3 Tropical Depression Vicente Discussion Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP232018 400 AM CDT Tue Oct 23 2018 Cells of heavy showers and thunderstorms are still forming near Vicente's center, but overall the convective organization has continued to deteriorate. Scatterometer data from 0418 UTC showed maximum winds of around 25 kt, so assuming some undersampling of the small circulation, the initial intensity is lowered to 30 kt. WindSat and ASCAT data revealed that Vicente's center had moved a little to the east of earlier fixes, and the depression's initial motion estimate is north-northwestward, or 330/10 kt. This motion should continue as Vicente gets drawn up between Hurricane Willa's circulation and a low- to mid-level ridge over the Gulf of Mexico, and the depression is therefore forecast to move inland over the Mexican state of Michoacan later today. Once inland, the tiny circulation is likely to dissipate quickly over mountainous terrain. A 12-hour remnant low position is provided for continuity to show a track moving inland, but in all likelihood Vicente will have dissipated by that time. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/0900Z 17.2N 102.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 23/1800Z 19.2N 103.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 24H 24/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Berg
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