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Summary for Tropical Depression Eleven (AT1/AL112018)
2018-09-23 04:36:28| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...POORLY ORGANIZED TROPICAL DEPRESSION CREEPING NORTHWESTWARD... ...COULD DISSIPATE AS SOON AS SUNDAY... As of 11:00 PM AST Sat Sep 22 the center of Eleven was located near 13.8, -54.5 with movement NW at 3 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1008 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 30 mph.
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Tropical Depression Eleven Public Advisory Number 5
2018-09-23 04:36:28| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Sat Sep 22 2018 945 WTNT31 KNHC 230236 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Eleven Advisory Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112018 1100 PM AST Sat Sep 22 2018 ...POORLY ORGANIZED TROPICAL DEPRESSION CREEPING NORTHWESTWARD... ...COULD DISSIPATE AS SOON AS SUNDAY... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.8N 54.5W ABOUT 440 MI...710 KM E OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Eleven was located near latitude 13.8 North, longitude 54.5 West. The depression is moving toward the northwest near 3 mph (6 km/h). A slow west-northwestward or northwestward motion is expected for the next day or so. Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts. The depression is forecast to dissipate on Sunday or early Monday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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Tropical Depression Eleven Forecast Discussion Number 5
2018-09-23 04:35:31| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Sat Sep 22 2018 082 WTNT41 KNHC 230235 TCDAT1 Tropical Depression Eleven Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112018 1100 PM AST Sat Sep 22 2018 Although deep convection has increased since earlier today, it has become increasingly difficult to identify a well-defined center associated with the depression. After moving erratically during the afternoon, the center of the depression appears to have become disrupted by convection to its east, and it is unclear at this point if a closed surface circulation still exists. Since visible imagery is not currently available and recent ASCAT data from around 0000Z was inconclusive, at least one more advisory will be issued under the assumption that the depression has not quite yet dissipated. The initial motion is highly uncertain, but it is assumed that the system is still moving generally northwestward, or 310/3 kt. No substantial changes were made to the NHC intensity or track forecasts. All available guidance indicates that the depression will continue to move slowly west-northwestward or northwestward for the next day or two while it gradually weakens due to continued strong wind shear. Given the recent increase in convection, it no longer seems likely that the system will become a remnant low prior to dissipating. Therefore, the NHC forecast now keeps the system as a tropical depression until dissipation occurs in 36 h, if not sooner. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/0300Z 13.8N 54.5W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 23/1200Z 14.2N 55.3W 25 KT 30 MPH 24H 24/0000Z 14.5N 56.6W 20 KT 25 MPH 36H 24/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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Tropical Depression Eleven Wind Speed Probabilities Number 5
2018-09-23 04:35:27| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC SUN SEP 23 2018 958 FONT11 KNHC 230235 PWSAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112018 0300 UTC SUN SEP 23 2018 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 54.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 25 KTS...30 MPH...45 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
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Tropical Depression Eleven Forecast Advisory Number 5
2018-09-23 04:34:58| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC SUN SEP 23 2018 522 WTNT21 KNHC 230234 TCMAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112018 0300 UTC SUN SEP 23 2018 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 54.5W AT 23/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 3 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 54.5W AT 23/0300Z AT 23/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 54.2W FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 14.2N 55.3W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 14.5N 56.6W MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.8N 54.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/0900Z $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
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