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Tropical Depression Eleven Wind Speed Probabilities Number 3
2018-09-22 16:31:54| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC SAT SEP 22 2018 089 FONT11 KNHC 221431 PWSAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112018 1500 UTC SAT SEP 22 2018 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 53.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 25 KTS...30 MPH...45 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN
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Tropical Depression Eleven Forecast Advisory Number 3
2018-09-22 16:31:25| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC SAT SEP 22 2018 577 WTNT21 KNHC 221431 TCMAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112018 1500 UTC SAT SEP 22 2018 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 53.8W AT 22/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 3 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 53.8W AT 22/1500Z AT 22/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 53.6W FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 13.6N 54.5W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 14.0N 55.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 14.4N 56.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.2N 53.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN
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Tropical Depression Eleven Graphics
2018-09-22 10:37:38| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 22 Sep 2018 08:37:38 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 22 Sep 2018 08:37:39 GMT
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Tropical Depression Eleven Forecast Discussion Number 2
2018-09-22 10:36:22| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Sat Sep 22 2018 624 WTNT41 KNHC 220836 TCDAT1 Tropical Depression Eleven Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112018 500 AM AST Sat Sep 22 2018 Deep convection remains displaced to the east of the depression's center due to 30-40 kt of westerly shear. Although Dvorak final-T numbers from TAFB and SAB have decreased since yesterday--now a consensus T1.0--the initial intensity is held, perhaps generously, at 30 kt. Strong westerly shear is expected to persist for several days, which at the very least will prevent the depression from getting any better organized. Since the global models show the depression opening up into a trough in about 24 hours, the new NHC intensity forecast brings down the winds a little faster, shows the system becoming a remnant low by 36 hours, and dissipates the low entirely by 48 hours well east of the Windward Islands. This evolution could certainly occur more quickly than indicated by the official forecast. The center of the depression has not been moving much, and it's possible the sheared convection is trying to pull it back toward the east. However, the average motion over the past 12 hours is westward, or 270/4 kt. The track guidance insists that the depression should move slowly west-northwestward over the next couple of days, but given that the system has not made any northward progress, I elected to skirt the southern edge of the guidance envelope. This new forecast is a little south of the previous NHC track prediction. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/0900Z 13.0N 53.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 22/1800Z 13.3N 54.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 23/0600Z 13.6N 55.4W 25 KT 30 MPH 36H 23/1800Z 13.8N 56.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 24/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Berg
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Summary for Tropical Depression Eleven (AT1/AL112018)
2018-09-22 10:35:55| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION NOT MOVING VERY MUCH... ...EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE IN A DAY OR TWO... As of 5:00 AM AST Sat Sep 22 the center of Eleven was located near 13.0, -53.5 with movement W at 5 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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