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Tropical Depression One-E Forecast Discussion Number 4
2018-05-11 16:32:23| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT Fri May 11 2018 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 111432 TCDEP1 Tropical Depression One-E Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP012018 800 AM PDT Fri May 11 2018 The depression consists of a tight swirl of low clouds located to the west of the deep convection, which has been pulsing for the past several hours. At this time, the low-level center is moving away from the remaining thunderstorm activity. Satellite intensity estimates have not changed, and the winds are still estimated at 30 kt. Belligerently unfavorable westerly shear of about 45 kt is forecast to affect the depression, and with such an environment, I have no option but to forecast that the cyclone will degenerate into a remnant low within the next 12 hours or so. Satellite fixes suggest that the depression in moving toward the west or 280 degrees at about 4 kt. The depression or its remnants will continue to move slowly, and will likely turn toward the northwest and north embedded within light steering currents. This is the solution provided by the track guidance. However, if the system opens up into a trough sooner, it is more reasonable to expected a westward drift instead. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 11/1500Z 12.7N 129.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 12/0000Z 13.0N 129.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 12/1200Z 13.5N 130.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 13/0000Z 14.0N 130.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 13/1200Z 14.5N 130.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 14/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Avila
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Summary for Tropical Depression One-E (EP1/EP012018)
2018-05-11 16:31:53| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION HANGING IN THERE BUT NOT FOR LONG... As of 8:00 AM PDT Fri May 11 the center of One-E was located near 12.7, -129.0 with movement W at 5 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression One-E Public Advisory Number 4
2018-05-11 16:31:53| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT Fri May 11 2018 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 111431 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Depression One-E Advisory Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP012018 800 AM PDT Fri May 11 2018 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION HANGING IN THERE BUT NOT FOR LONG... SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...12.7N 129.0W ABOUT 1435 MI...2315 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression One-E was located near latitude 12.7 North, longitude 129.0 West. The depression is moving toward the west near 5 mph (7 km/h). A gradual turn toward the west-northwest is expected today and Saturday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Strong upper-level winds are expected to cause weakening, and the depression is forecast to degenerate into a remnant low by tonight or early Saturday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Avila
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Tropical Depression One-E Wind Speed Probabilities Number 4
2018-05-11 16:31:53| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC FRI MAY 11 2018 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 111431 PWSEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012018 1500 UTC FRI MAY 11 2018 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 129.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 130W 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) 4( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) $$ FORECASTER AVILA
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Tropical Depression One-E Forecast Advisory Number 4
2018-05-11 16:31:23| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC FRI MAY 11 2018 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 111431 TCMEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012018 1500 UTC FRI MAY 11 2018 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.7N 129.0W AT 11/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.7N 129.0W AT 11/1500Z AT 11/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.6N 128.8W FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 13.0N 129.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 13.5N 130.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 14.0N 130.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 14.5N 130.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.7N 129.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/2100Z $$ FORECASTER AVILA
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