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Tropical Depression Nineteen Graphics
2017-11-06 09:53:58| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 06 Nov 2017 08:53:58 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 06 Nov 2017 09:23:52 GMT
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Tropical Depression Nineteen Forecast Discussion Number 1
2017-11-06 09:49:33| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Mon Nov 06 2017 000 WTNT44 KNHC 060849 TCDAT4 Tropical Depression Nineteen Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192017 500 AM AST Mon Nov 06 2017 GOES-16 night-time visible and infrared satellite imagery indicate that convection associated with the well-defined low pressure system located over the central Atlantic Ocean has increased and become better organized during the past several hours. Satellite intensity estimates were T1.5/25 kt from both TAFB and SAB at 0600Z. Since that time, however, a burst of deep convection has developed over the previously partially exposed low-level circulation center, which had been located near the northwestern edge of the large convective cloud mass. Given that the center is now located farther into the deep convection, NHC objective intensity estimates have increased to more than 30 kt. As a result, advisories have been initiated on the nineteenth tropical depression of the 2017 Atlantic hurricane season. The initial motion estimate is 095/05 kt. The center of the cyclone has been moving slowly eastward within the larger cyclonic gyre for the past 12-18 hours, most likely due to the deep convection being sheared toward the east. However, the latest NHC model guidance indicates that the recent eastward motion should be short-lived since the larger gyre is forecast to begin moving northward within the next 6 h or so. As the wind field contracts over the next 24 hours, the motion of the cyclone should stabilize and become less erratic as deep-layer southerly steering flow becomes established on the west side of a large-scale subtropical ridge. By 48 h and beyond, southwesterly flow ahead of mid-latitude trough is forecast to accelerate the system toward the northeast through 96 h. By 120 h, the cyclone should have merged with a frontal system or have dissipated over the cold waters of the far north Atlantic. The official track forecast lies close to a blend of the TVCN, TVCX, and GFEX consensus track models. The cyclone is currently embedded within a low-shear environment in the col region between a weakening upper-level low located to the southeast and a trough to the northwest. The vertical wind shear is forecast by the GFS and ECMWF models to remain relatively low for the next 36 h or so, which should allow for some modest strengthening to occur despite sea-surface temperatures only being around 25-26 deg C. Temperatures of 2-3 deg C colder-than-normal in the mid- and upper-levels of the troposphere, however, should act to offset the cooler SSTs, providing sufficient instability to allow for deep convection to continue to develop. Model soundings and the FSU Cyclone Phase-Space diagram indicate that extratropical transition should begin shortly after 48 h when the cyclone reaches about 40N latitude and moves over much cooler water. The NHC intensity closely follows the HCCA and IVCN consensus models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/0900Z 28.9N 50.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 06/1800Z 30.0N 49.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 07/0600Z 32.0N 49.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 07/1800Z 35.4N 49.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 08/0600Z 39.4N 48.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 09/0600Z 49.0N 38.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 10/0600Z 59.0N 15.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 11/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Tropical Depression Nineteen Wind Speed Probabilities Number 1
2017-11-06 09:42:25| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC MON NOV 06 2017 000 FONT14 KNHC 060841 PWSAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192017 0900 UTC MON NOV 06 2017 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 50.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT HIBERNIA OILFD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Summary for Tropical Depression Nineteen (AT4/AL192017)
2017-11-06 09:42:13| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC... ...NO THREAT TO ANY LAND AREAS... As of 5:00 AM AST Mon Nov 6 the center of Nineteen was located near 28.9, -50.2 with movement E at 6 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1013 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression Nineteen Public Advisory Number 1
2017-11-06 09:42:13| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Mon Nov 06 2017 000 WTNT34 KNHC 060841 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Nineteen Advisory Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192017 500 AM AST Mon Nov 06 2017 ...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC... ...NO THREAT TO ANY LAND AREAS... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...28.9N 50.2W ABOUT 900 MI...1445 KM E OF BERMUDA ABOUT 1470 MI...2370 KM WSW OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 95 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1013 MB...29.92 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Nineteen was located near latitude 28.9 North, longitude 50.2 West. The depression is moving toward the east near 6 mph (9 km/h). However, a turn toward the north-northeast or north is expected later today, and this general motion is forecast to continue through Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and the depression is expected to become a tropical storm later today. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1013 mb (29.92 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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