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Tropical Depression One-E Public Advisory Number 1
2018-05-10 22:33:05| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT Thu May 10 2018 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 102032 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Depression One-E Advisory Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP012018 200 PM PDT Thu May 10 2018 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC... ...NOT EXPECTED TO LAST MORE THAN A DAY... SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...12.4N 126.5W ABOUT 1310 MI...2105 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of newly formed Tropical Depression One-E was located near latitude 12.4 North, longitude 126.5 West. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 5 mph (7 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue through Friday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Weakening is forecast and the depression is expected to become a remnant low on Friday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Avila
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Tropical Depression One-E Wind Speed Probabilities Number 1
2018-05-10 22:33:00| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC THU MAY 10 2018 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 102032 PWSEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012018 2100 UTC THU MAY 10 2018 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 126.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER AVILA
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Tropical Depression One-E Forecast Advisory Number 1
2018-05-10 22:32:29| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC THU MAY 10 2018 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 102032 TCMEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012018 2100 UTC THU MAY 10 2018 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.4N 126.5W AT 10/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.4N 126.5W AT 10/2100Z AT 10/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.3N 126.2W FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 12.8N 127.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 13.5N 128.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 14.0N 128.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.4N 126.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/0300Z $$ FORECASTER AVILA
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Tropical Depression Nineteen Graphics
2017-11-06 21:37:09| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 06 Nov 2017 20:37:09 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 06 Nov 2017 21:26:22 GMT
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Tropical Depression Nineteen Forecast Discussion Number 3
2017-11-06 21:31:46| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Mon Nov 06 2017 000 WTNT44 KNHC 062031 TCDAT4 Tropical Depression Nineteen Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192017 500 PM AST Mon Nov 06 2017 The depression has changed little in structure during the past several hours. The low-level center remains exposed to the west of the main area of deep convection due to the influence of westerly shear and dry air. The initial intensity is held at 30 kt based on the earlier ASCAT data and a Dvorak classification of 2.0/30 kt from TAFB. Satellite fixes indicate that the system has been moving slowly and erratically during the past 6 to 12 hours. Smoothing through the wobbles yields an initial motion of 020/5 kt. The combined influences of a mid-level ridge to the east of the depression and a shortwave trough to its west should cause the system to move progressively faster toward the north or north-northeast during the next couple of days. Beyond that time, an even faster northeastward motion is expected when the system becomes embedded in the mid- latitude westerlies. The latest track guidance is notably slower than the previous cycles, and the new NHC track forecast has been adjusted in that direction. The cyclone is expected to remain in an environment of moderate westerly shear while it moves toward cooler waters. Although these conditions typically would not favor strengthening, the models do show the depression deepening during the next couple of days, likely due to some baroclinic forcing and the expected increase in forward speed of the system. The cyclone will likely complete extratropical transition Wednesday night or early Thursday when it merges with a cold front. Overall the intensity guidance has changed little this cycle, and no change was made to the previous NHC intensity prediction. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/2100Z 29.9N 50.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 07/0600Z 31.4N 49.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 07/1800Z 34.2N 49.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 08/0600Z 37.6N 48.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 08/1800Z 41.1N 46.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 09/1800Z 48.8N 37.4W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 10/1800Z 56.0N 14.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 11/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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