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Tropical Depression Eighteen Forecast Discussion Number 4
2017-10-28 17:00:30| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM EDT Sat Oct 28 2017 000 WTNT43 KNHC 281500 TCDAT3 Tropical Depression Eighteen Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182017 1100 AM EDT Sat Oct 28 2017 Data from an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft indicate that the low pressure system located over the northwestern Caribbean Sea has developed a well-defined low-level circulation center. Satellite imagery also shows more central deep convection has developed and persisted in the inner-core region since yesterday. Based on these data, the disturbance has been upgraded to Tropical Depression Eighteen. With the recent redevelopment of the inner-core region this morning, the initial motion estimate is an uncertain 020/19 kt. The global models remain in excellent agreement on an approaching frontal system and deep mid-tropospheric trough accelerating the cyclone north-northeastward across west-central Cuba today, followed by a motion toward the northeast tonight and Sunday, with the system passing about midway between Bermuda and the southeastern United States in 36-48 hours. The new NHC forecast track is essentially just an update of the previous advisory due to the good agreement in the global and consensus models, which lie along or just a tad to the west of the official forecast track. The vertical wind shear affecting the cyclone is expected to remain somewhat favorable for strengthening to occur for the next 24 hours or so, with the depression expected to become a tropical storm by tonight. Thereafter, baroclinic processes associated with the aforementioned frontal system are forecast to induce some additional strengthening before the cyclone merges with the frontal system and becomes an extratropical low by 48 hours. Dissipation is expected by 72 hours when the system is located over the far North Atlantic. KEY MESSAGES: 1. While the forecast track of the center lies about 35 miles southeast of the Upper Florida Keys and extreme southeast Florida and most of the winds are expected to remain east of the center, only a slight deviation to the west of the expected track or an increase in the size of the wind field could bring tropical-storm- force winds across these land areas. For that reason, a tropical storm watch has been issued for these areas. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/1500Z 20.8N 82.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 29/0000Z 23.0N 81.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 29/1200Z 26.6N 78.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 30/0000Z 31.5N 74.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 30/1200Z 37.5N 69.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 31/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Summary for Tropical Depression Eighteen (AT3/AL182017)
2017-10-28 16:59:58| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT FINDS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION HAS FORMED OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA... ...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR THE UPPER FLORIDA KEYS AND SOUTHEAST FLORIDA... As of 11:00 AM EDT Sat Oct 28 the center of Eighteen was located near 20.8, -82.9 with movement NNE at 22 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression Eighteen Public Advisory Number 4
2017-10-28 16:59:58| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM EDT Sat Oct 28 2017 000 WTNT33 KNHC 281459 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Eighteen Advisory Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182017 1100 AM EDT Sat Oct 28 2017 ...AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT FINDS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION HAS FORMED OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA... ...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR THE UPPER FLORIDA KEYS AND SOUTHEAST FLORIDA... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.8N 82.9W ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM S OF THE ISLE OF YOUTH ABOUT 170 MI...270 KM S OF HAVANA CUBA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 22 MPH...35 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for portions of southeastern Florida and the upper Florida Keys from Craig Key to Golden Beach. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Cuban provinces of Isla de la Juventud, La Habana, Ciudad de la Habana, Matanzas, Cienfuegos, and Villa Clara * Northwestern Bahamas A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Craig Key to Golden Beach * Central Bahamas A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 12-24 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within 24 hours. Interests in the Cayman Islands should monitor the progress of this system. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Eighteen was located by reconnaissance aircraft and radars from Cuba and Grand Cayman near latitude 20.8 North, longitude 82.9 West. The depression is moving toward the north-northeast near 22 mph (35 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue today. A motion toward the northeast with an increase in forward speed is expected to begin tonight and continue through Sunday. On the forecast track, the center will move across west-central Cuba this afternoon, across the Straits of Florida tonight, and across the northwestern Bahamas Sunday morning. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and the depression is expected to become a tropical storm by tonight. The estimated minimum central pressure based on reconnaissance data is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: The depression is expected to produce the following rainfall totals: The Cayman Islands, western and central Cuba, northern Bahamas: 4 to 8 inches with isolated maximum totals of 10 inches through Sunday. These rainfall amounts may produce life threatening flash floods and mudslides. South Florida, including the Keys: 2 to 4 inches with isolated maximum totals of 6 inches through Sunday. These rainfall totals may produce flash flooding, especially in urbanized areas. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the warning area in Cuba later today and the northwestern Bahamas tonight. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the central Bahamas tonight or early Sunday. TORNADOES: A couple of brief tornadoes are possible across far South Florida and the Florida Keys this afternoon and evening. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT. Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Tropical Depression Eighteen Forecast Advisory Number 4
2017-10-28 16:58:33| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC SAT OCT 28 2017 000 WTNT23 KNHC 281458 TCMAT3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182017 1500 UTC SAT OCT 28 2017 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA AND THE UPPER FLORIDA KEYS FROM CRAIG KEY TO GOLDEN BEACH. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CUBAN PROVINCES OF ISLA DE LA JUVENTUD...LA HABANA...CIUDAD DE LA HABANA...MATANZAS...CIENFUEGOS...AND VILLA CLARA * NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CRAIG KEY TO GOLDEN BEACH * CENTRAL BAHAMAS A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 HOURS. INTERESTS IN THE CAYMAN ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.8N 82.9W AT 28/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 20 DEGREES AT 19 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.8N 82.9W AT 28/1500Z AT 28/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.9N 83.5W FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 23.0N 81.8W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 120SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 26.6N 78.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 50SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 31.5N 74.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...120NE 150SE 100SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 37.5N 69.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 0NW. 34 KT...150NE 150SE 120SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.8N 82.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/2100Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Tropical Depression Eighteen Wind Speed Probabilities Number 4
2017-10-28 16:58:33| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC SAT OCT 28 2017 000 FONT13 KNHC 281458 PWSAT3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182017 1500 UTC SAT OCT 28 2017 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 82.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT NANTUCKET MA 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) CAPE HATTERAS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) W PALM BEACH 34 X 8( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) FT LAUDERDALE 34 X 13(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) MIAMI FL 34 X 13(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) HOMESTEAD ARB 34 X 16(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) MARATHON FL 34 1 9(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) KEY WEST FL 34 1 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) GRAND BAHAMA 34 X 31(31) 5(36) X(36) X(36) X(36) X(36) GRAND BAHAMA 50 X 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) NEW PROVIDENCE 34 X 15(15) 1(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) ANDROS 34 X 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) HAVANA 34 5 X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) ISLE OF PINES 34 7 X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) CIENFUEGOS 34 5 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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