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Tropical Depression Lee Forecast Discussion Number 18
2017-09-22 22:37:57| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Fri Sep 22 2017 000 WTNT44 KNHC 222037 TCDAT4 Tropical Depression Lee Discussion Number 18 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142017 500 PM AST Fri Sep 22 2017 The mid-level circulation from Lee separated from the low-level center two days ago and moved northward around the eastern periphery of a large upper-level trough. A large convective burst over the mid-level center yesterday then caused a new low-level center to develop while it moved on the northern side of the upper trough. ASCAT and ship data indicate that the small circulation is now well defined, and since deep convection has persisted near the center, advisories on Lee are being restarted. The initial wind speed is 30 kt, which could be conservative given the healthy structure seen on the last-light visible and recent microwave data. Cold upper-level temperatures from the upper trough should mitigate the effect of marginally warm waters for the next few days while Lee remains in a low-shear environment. The depression is expected to strengthen over the next few days until westerly shear is forecast to increase. The official forecast is similar to the model guidance, although it shows an earlier peak more coincident with the lower-shear, warmer-water environment. This wind speed forecast is difficult because Lee is a very small tropical cyclone, which notoriously have rapid changes, both up and down, in intensity. Lee is moving northward at about 6 kt. The depression should turn to the northeast and east over the next couple of days while it moves around a ridge over the tropical central Atlantic. Lee is forecast to become trapped beneath a mid-latitude ridge in a few days, which should cause the cyclone to drift at long range. It should be noted that models have a rather weak representation of Lee at the present time, which causes this to be an uncertain forecast. For now, the forecast is closest to the ECMWF, which has the most coherent cyclone to follow. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/2100Z 30.8N 48.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 23/0600Z 31.7N 48.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 23/1800Z 32.3N 48.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 24/0600Z 32.3N 47.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 24/1800Z 32.1N 45.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 25/1800Z 31.4N 43.2W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 26/1800Z 30.5N 42.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 120H 27/1800Z 29.5N 43.0W 50 KT 60 MPH $$ Forecaster Blake
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Summary for Tropical Depression Lee (AT4/AL142017)
2017-09-22 22:35:59| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...LEE REGENERATES OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN... ...NO THREAT TO LAND... As of 5:00 PM AST Fri Sep 22 the center of Lee was located near 30.8, -48.9 with movement N at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1014 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression Lee Public Advisory Number 18
2017-09-22 22:35:59| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Fri Sep 22 2017 000 WTNT34 KNHC 222035 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Lee Advisory Number 18 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142017 500 PM AST Fri Sep 22 2017 ...LEE REGENERATES OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN... ...NO THREAT TO LAND... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...30.8N 48.9W ABOUT 940 MI...1515 KM E OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1014 MB...29.95 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Lee was located near latitude 30.8 North, longitude 48.9 West. The depression is moving toward the north near 7 mph (11 km/h), and a gradual turn to the northeast and east is forecast over the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1014 mb (29.95 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Blake
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Tropical Depression Lee Wind Speed Probabilities Number 18
2017-09-22 22:35:52| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC FRI SEP 22 2017 000 FONT14 KNHC 222035 PWSAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION LEE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142017 2100 UTC FRI SEP 22 2017 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION LEE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 48.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
Tropical Depression Lee Forecast Advisory Number 18
2017-09-22 22:35:23| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC FRI SEP 22 2017 000 WTNT24 KNHC 222035 TCMAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION LEE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142017 2100 UTC FRI SEP 22 2017 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.8N 48.9W AT 22/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 10 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1014 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.8N 48.9W AT 22/2100Z AT 22/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 30.5N 49.0W FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 31.7N 48.7W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 32.3N 48.2W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 32.3N 47.2W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 32.1N 45.8W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 31.4N 43.2W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 0NW. 34 KT... 40NE 50SE 40SW 30NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 26/1800Z 30.5N 42.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 27/1800Z 29.5N 43.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 30.8N 48.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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