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Tropical Depression Eighteen-E Graphics
2017-09-24 01:31:53| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 23 Sep 2017 23:31:53 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 23 Sep 2017 21:34:56 GMT
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Summary for Tropical Depression Eighteen-E (EP3/EP182017)
2017-09-24 01:30:49| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM TONIGHT OR SUNDAY... As of 7:00 PM CDT Sat Sep 23 the center of Eighteen-E was located near 18.5, -105.5 with movement NNW at 5 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression Eighteen-E Public Advisory Number 1A
2017-09-24 01:30:49| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 700 PM CDT Sat Sep 23 2017 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 232330 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Eighteen-E Intermediate Advisory Number 1A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182017 700 PM CDT Sat Sep 23 2017 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM TONIGHT OR SUNDAY... SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.5N 105.5W ABOUT 75 MI...125 KM WSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO ABOUT 130 MI...215 KM S OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * The southwestern coast of Mexico from Manzanillo northward to El Roblito, including the Islas Marias A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 24 to 36 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 700 PM CDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Eighteen-E was located near latitude 18.5 North, longitude 105.5 West. The depression is moving toward the north-northwest near 5 mph (7 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue for the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the depression is expected to pass near or just offshore of the southwestern coast of Mexico tonight into Monday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is expected during the next 48 hours, and the depression is forecast to become a tropical storm tonight or early Sunday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: The depression is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 3 to 6 inches with possible isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches over the western portions of the Mexican states of Michoacan, Colima, western Jalisco and Nayarit. This rainfall could cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. WIND: Tropical Storm conditions are expected to begin within the southern portion of the warning area this evening or early Sunday, and gradually spread northward along the Mexican coast on Sunday and Monday. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Avila
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Tropical Depression Eighteen-E Graphics
2017-09-23 22:49:29| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 23 Sep 2017 20:49:29 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 23 Sep 2017 21:34:56 GMT
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Tropical Depression Eighteen-E Forecast Discussion Number 1
2017-09-23 22:43:23| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 400 PM CDT Sat Sep 23 2017 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 232042 TCDEP3 Tropical Depression Eighteen-E Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182017 400 PM CDT Sat Sep 23 2017 ASCAT-A/-B scatterometer data from around 16-17Z indicated that the low pressure system located just offshore of the southwestern coast of Mexico that the NHC has been tracking the past several days has become much better defined, and it also possessed surface winds of 30-33 kt. As a result, the system has been upgraded to a tropical depression, the eighteenth of the eastern Pacific hurricane season. The initial motion estimate is 335/04, based primarily on microwave satellite fixes. The latest NHC model guidance is in fairly good agreement on the cyclone moving slowly in a general north-northwestward direction around the western periphery of a deep-layer ridge for the next 5 days. Some of the models like the GFS, Canadian, and HCCA take the system just inland near Cabo Corrientes in about 24 hours, whereas the remainder of the guidance, especially the UKMET and ECMWF, keep the cyclone just offshore of the southwestern coast of Mexico. The forecast motion for the next few days is expected to be 5 kt or less, an indication that steering currents will be weak. Since there is no strong forcing that would want to drive the depression inland over the mountainous terrain of southwestern Mexico, the official forecast calls for the center of the cyclone to remain just offshore of the coast throughout the forecast period, similar to the ECMWF and UKMET solutions. Given the well-defined circulation noted in the aforementioned scatterometer data, along with vertical wind shear decreasing to less than 10 kt by 24 hours, steady strengthening is forecast for the next 24-36 hours. Afterwards, southeasterly to southerly shear is expected to gradually increase to 25 kt by 72 hours and more than 30 kt in the 96-120 hour period, which should induce steady to possible rapid weakening. The NHC intensity forecast is above most of the guidance through 48 hours, and then is a little lower than the guidance after that. Due to the depression being forecast to become a tropical storm by tonight, along with its proximity to the coast of Mexico, a tropical storm warning has been issued from Manzanillo northward to El Roblito, including the Islas Marias. Heavy rainfall causing flash floods and mudslides will also be possible within the warning area and extending well inland. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/2100Z 18.4N 105.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 24/0600Z 18.8N 105.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 24/1800Z 19.4N 105.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 25/0600Z 20.2N 106.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 25/1800Z 21.2N 106.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 26/1800Z 22.7N 107.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 27/1800Z 24.0N 108.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 120H 28/1800Z 26.0N 110.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Stewart
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