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Tropical Depression Pilar Forecast Discussion Number 8
2017-09-25 16:44:34| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 AM MDT Mon Sep 25 2017 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 251444 TCDEP3 Tropical Depression Pilar Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182017 900 AM MDT Mon Sep 25 2017 Water vapor satellite imagery indicates that strong southwesterly vertical wind shear, along with an abundance of dry mid-/upper-level air, ahead of sharp shortwave trough moving across southern Baja California is taking its toll on Pilar. Convection has weakened considerably and has been displaced to the north and east of the poorly defined low-level circulation center. A blend of Dvorak satellite T-numbers and current intensity (CI) estimates from TAFB and SAB is a consensus T2.0/30 kt, resulting in Pilar being downgraded to a tropical depression. The shear is forecast to increase to more than 30 kt by 12 h, so continued weakening and degeneration into a remnant low is forecast today, followed by dissipation on Tuesday...if not sooner. The initial motion estimate is 335/06 kt. Pilar and its remnants are expected to continue moving in this general direction, accompanied by a slight decrease in forward speed, for the next day or so until dissipation occurs. The new NHC track forecast is similar to the previous advisory track, and lies close to a blend of the NOAA-HCCA and TCVA consensus track models. The main hazard associated with Pilar will continue to be heavy rainfall, which could trigger life-threatening flash floods and mudslides, over the states of Nayarit, the southern portion of Sinaloa, and the southwestern portion of Durango during the next day or so. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/1500Z 22.8N 107.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 26/0000Z 23.4N 107.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 26/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Tropical Depression Pilar Wind Speed Probabilities Number 8
2017-09-25 16:44:06| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC MON SEP 25 2017 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 251443 PWSEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION PILAR WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182017 1500 UTC MON SEP 25 2017 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION PILAR WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 107.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Summary for Tropical Depression Pilar (EP3/EP182017)
2017-09-25 16:44:03| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...PILAR WEAKENS TO A DEPRESSION... ...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING STILL EXPECTED IN THE MEXICAN STATES OF NAYARIT, SINALOA, AND DURANGO... As of 9:00 AM MDT Mon Sep 25 the center of Pilar was located near 22.8, -107.0 with movement NNW at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1004 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression Pilar Public Advisory Number 8
2017-09-25 16:44:03| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 AM MDT Mon Sep 25 2017 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 251443 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Pilar Advisory Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182017 900 AM MDT Mon Sep 25 2017 ...PILAR WEAKENS TO A DEPRESSION... ...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING STILL EXPECTED IN THE MEXICAN STATES OF NAYARIT, SINALOA, AND DURANGO... SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...22.8N 107.0W ABOUT 45 MI...75 KM SW OF MAZATLAN MEXICO ABOUT 100 MI...155 KM NNW OF LAS ISLAS MARIAS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Mexico has discontinued the Tropical Storm Warning for western mainland Mexico. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Pilar was located near latitude 22.8 North, longitude 107.0 West. The depression is moving toward the north-northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue for the next day or so until Pilar dissipates. On the forecast track, the center of Pilar is expected to remain just offshore of the coasts of the Mexican states of Nayarit and Sinaloa today. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecast, and Pilar is expected to become a remnant low later today and dissipate by Tuesday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Pilar is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 3 to 7 inches with possible isolated maximum amounts of 10 inches over the western portions of the Mexican states of Nayarit, southern Sinaloa, and southwestern Durango through Tuesday. This rainfall could cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Tropical Depression Pilar Forecast Advisory Number 8
2017-09-25 16:43:32| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC MON SEP 25 2017 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 251443 TCMEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION PILAR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182017 1500 UTC MON SEP 25 2017 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR WESTERN MAINLAND MEXICO. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.8N 107.0W AT 25/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 335 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.8N 107.0W AT 25/1500Z AT 25/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.6N 106.9W FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 23.4N 107.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.8N 107.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/2100Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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