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Tropical Depression Sixteen Forecast Discussion Number 2
2017-10-04 22:51:11| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM EDT Wed Oct 04 2017 000 WTNT41 KNHC 042051 TCDAT1 Tropical Depression Sixteen Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162017 500 PM EDT Wed Oct 04 2017 Visible satellite images show that the depression has lots of curved bands, although it is somewhat lacking any inner core features. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter flew into the depression this afternoon and found a well-defined circulation, with maximum flight-level winds of 37 kt and SFMR values around 30 kt. These data support keeping the intensity at 30 kt for this advisory. Environmental conditions look quite favorable for strengthening over the next few days, with low shear and very warm and deep water in the path of the cyclone. The various rapid intensification indices are all higher than the last cycle, suggesting an increasing chance of rapid intensification occurring. The fly in the ointment, however, is all of the potential land interaction, first over Central America and then possibly over the Yucatan Peninsula. As a compromise, the intensity forecast is raised considerably from the previous one during the first 3 days, but is still below some guidance, such as the HWRF. The depression continues to move slowly northwestward, steered by a distant ridge over the southwestern Atlantic. However the steering pattern is forecast to change quickly tomorrow as a mid-tropospheric trough over the Florida Straits moves across the northwestern Caribbean into the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. Southerly flow on the eastern side of that trough should cause the cyclone to move much faster to the north-northwest by Friday and northward into the Gulf of Mexico on Saturday. While there is some agreement on the synoptic pattern, the model track agreement is rather poor, even in the short term, with the GFS and ECMWF being 90 miles apart on the forecast track as soon as 24 hours out. This has profound differences down the road, with the GFS-based guidance moving considerably faster and to the left of the ECMWF and UKMET across the Gulf of Mexico. Overall, the guidance has generally shifted a bit westward since the last cycle, so the latest points in the long range have been adjusted in that direction. At this point, I wouldn't focus too much attention on the details of the long-range forecast until the guidance comes into better agreement. A G-IV mission and Florida special soundings have been set up for tomorrow to better determine the synoptic steering flow around the cyclone. KEY MESSAGES: 1. The depression is forecast to strengthen and bring tropical storm conditions to portions of Nicaragua and Honduras tonight through Friday. Heavy rainfall could produce life-threatening flash flooding and mud slides in portions of Nicaragua, Honduras, Costa Rica, and Panama through Friday night. 2. The system is expected to be near hurricane intensity when it approaches the Yucatan Peninsula late Friday or Saturday, bringing direct impacts from wind, storm surge, and heavy rainfall. A hurricane watch could be issued for this area later this evening. 3. The system is forecast to continue strengthening over the Gulf of Mexico and could affect portions of the northern Gulf Coast as a hurricane this weekend, with direct impacts from wind, storm surge, and heavy rainfall. However, it is too early to specify the timing, location, or magnitude of these impacts. Residents along the Gulf Coast from Louisiana to Florida should monitor the progress of this system for the next several days and heed any advice given by local officials. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/2100Z 12.5N 82.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 05/0600Z 13.2N 83.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 05/1800Z 14.6N 83.8W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 36H 06/0600Z 16.7N 84.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 06/1800Z 19.5N 85.8W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 07/1800Z 25.0N 88.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 96H 08/1800Z 30.5N 86.0W 65 KT 75 MPH...INLAND 120H 09/1800Z 35.5N 82.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND $$ Forecaster Blake
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Tropical Depression Sixteen Wind Speed Probabilities Number 2
2017-10-04 22:50:15| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC WED OCT 04 2017 000 FONT11 KNHC 042050 PWSAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162017 2100 UTC WED OCT 04 2017 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 82.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT WALLOPS CDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) CHARLOTTESVIL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) RICHMOND VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) DANVILLE VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) NORFOLK NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) NORFOLK VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) OCEANA NAS VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) ELIZABETH CTY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) GREENSBORO NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) RALEIGH NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) ROCKY MT NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) CAPE HATTERAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) FAYETTEVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) CHARLOTTE NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) CHERRY PT NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) NEW RIVER NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) MOREHEAD CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) SURF CITY NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) WILMINGTON NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) BALD HEAD ISL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) FLORENCE SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 8(11) COLUMBIA SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 10(15) COLUMBIA SC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) LITTLE RIVER 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) MYRTLE BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) GEORGETOWN SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) GEORGETOWN SC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) GEORGETOWN SC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) CHARLESTON SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 8(13) CHARLESTON SC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) BEAUFORT MCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 10(17) BEAUFORT MCAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) BEAUFORT MCAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) ATLANTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 11(23) ATLANTA GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) AUGUSTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 12(21) AUGUSTA GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) SAVANNAH GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 10(20) SAVANNAH GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) SAVANNAH GA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) KINGS BAY GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 7(20) KINGS BAY GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) KINGS BAY GA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) WAYCROSS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 16(16) 9(25) WAYCROSS GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) WAYCROSS GA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) MAYPORT NS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 6(18) MAYPORT NS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) MAYPORT NS FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) JACKSONVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) 6(20) JACKSONVILLE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) JACKSONVILLE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) GAINESVILLE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 18(19) 5(24) GAINESVILLE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) GAINESVILLE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) DAYTONA BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 3(14) THE VILLAGES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 15(16) 3(19) THE VILLAGES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) ORLANDO FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 2(13) COCOA BEACH FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 2( 9) PATRICK AFB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 2( 9) FT PIERCE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) W PALM BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) FT LAUDERDALE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) MIAMI FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) HOMESTEAD ARB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) MARATHON FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) KEY WEST FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 3( 9) X( 9) NAPLES FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 6(10) 1(11) FT MYERS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 8(12) X(12) VENICE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 13(17) 2(19) VENICE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) TAMPA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 16(19) 2(21) TAMPA FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) TAMPA FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) CEDAR KEY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 23(25) 4(29) CEDAR KEY FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) CEDAR KEY FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 31(33) 9(42) TALLAHASSEE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 4(14) TALLAHASSEE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) ST MARKS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 32(34) 7(41) ST MARKS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 3(14) ST MARKS FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) APALACHICOLA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 38(43) 6(49) APALACHICOLA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) 3(17) APALACHICOLA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) GFMX 290N 850W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 37(44) 6(50) GFMX 290N 850W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 14(15) 3(18) GFMX 290N 850W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 1( 7) PANAMA CITY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 39(44) 6(50) PANAMA CITY FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 16(16) 3(19) PANAMA CITY FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 1( 7) COLUMBUS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 22(22) 10(32) COLUMBUS GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 4( 9) COLUMBUS GA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) BIRMINGHAM AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 8(20) BIRMINGHAM AL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) MONTGOMERY AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 22(23) 9(32) MONTGOMERY AL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 3( 9) MONTGOMERY AL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) WHITING FLD FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 34(37) 7(44) WHITING FLD FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) 3(18) WHITING FLD FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) PENSACOLA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 35(39) 6(45) PENSACOLA FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 15(16) 2(18) PENSACOLA FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) GFMX 290N 870W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 42(55) 4(59) GFMX 290N 870W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 21(23) 3(26) GFMX 290N 870W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 1(11) MOBILE AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 29(32) 4(36) MOBILE AL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 2(14) MOBILE AL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) GULFPORT MS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 25(28) 3(31) GULFPORT MS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 2(12) GULFPORT MS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) STENNIS MS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 21(24) 2(26) STENNIS MS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 1(10) STENNIS MS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) BURAS LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 24(32) 2(34) BURAS LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 2(14) BURAS LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) GFMX 280N 890W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 20(20) 31(51) 1(52) GFMX 280N 890W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 18(23) 1(24) GFMX 280N 890W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) X(10) JACKSON MS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 2(12) NEW ORLEANS LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 17(21) 1(22) NEW ORLEANS LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) X( 7) NEW ORLEANS LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) GFMX 280N 910W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 15(24) 1(25) GFMX 280N 910W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) 1( 9) GFMX 280N 910W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) BATON ROUGE LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 11(13) 1(14) BATON ROUGE LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) BATON ROUGE LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) MORGAN CITY LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 13(16) X(16) MORGAN CITY LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) MORGAN CITY LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) ALEXANDRIA LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) LAFAYETTE LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) X(10) NEW IBERIA LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) 1(11) NEW IBERIA LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) NEW IBERIA LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) GFMX 280N 930W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) X( 8) FORT POLK LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) LAKE CHARLES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) CAMERON LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) JASPER TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) PORT ARTHUR TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) MERIDA MX 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) 1(14) X(14) MERIDA MX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) COZUMEL MX 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 25(26) 24(50) X(50) X(50) COZUMEL MX 50 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 15(20) X(20) X(20) COZUMEL MX 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) BELIZE CITY 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) GUANAJA 34 X 1( 1) 17(18) 8(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) GUANAJA 50 X X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) GUANAJA 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) PUERTO CABEZAS 34 11 35(46) 2(48) X(48) X(48) X(48) X(48) PUERTO CABEZAS 50 X 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) SAN ANDRES 34 3 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) CP SAN ANTONIO 34 X X( X) X( X) 18(18) 30(48) X(48) X(48) CP SAN ANTONIO 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 12(14) X(14) X(14) CP SAN ANTONIO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) HAVANA 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 8(12) 1(13) X(13) ISLE OF PINES 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 7(16) X(16) X(16) CIENFUEGOS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GRAND CAYMAN 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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Summary for Tropical Depression Sixteen (AT1/AL162017)
2017-10-04 22:49:42| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA FROM THE DEPRESSION... As of 5:00 PM EDT Wed Oct 4 the center of Sixteen was located near 12.5, -82.5 with movement NW at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression Sixteen Forecast Advisory Number 2
2017-10-04 22:49:42| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC WED OCT 04 2017 000 WTNT21 KNHC 042049 TCMAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162017 2100 UTC WED OCT 04 2017 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SANDY BAY SIRPI NICARAGUA TO PUNTA CASTILLA HONDURAS A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA... IN THIS CASE WITHIN 12-24 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN HONDURAS... THE BAY ISLANDS... WESTERN CUBA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THE DEPRESSION. A HURRICANE WATCH COULD BE ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA THIS EVENING. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.5N 82.5W AT 04/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.5N 82.5W AT 04/2100Z AT 04/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.3N 82.3W FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 13.2N 83.1W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 14.6N 83.8W...INLAND MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 16.7N 84.6W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 19.5N 85.8W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT...100NE 70SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 25.0N 88.0W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...120NE 90SE 50SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 08/1800Z 30.5N 86.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 09/1800Z 35.5N 82.0W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.5N 82.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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Tropical Depression Sixteen Public Advisory Number 2
2017-10-04 22:49:42| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM EDT Wed Oct 04 2017 000 WTNT31 KNHC 042049 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Sixteen Advisory Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162017 500 PM EDT Wed Oct 04 2017 ...LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA FROM THE DEPRESSION... SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...12.5N 82.5W ABOUT 55 MI...85 KM W OF SAN ANDRES ISLAND ABOUT 180 MI...290 KM SSE OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Sandy Bay Sirpi Nicaragua to Punta Castilla Honduras A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 12-24 hours. Interests elsewhere in Honduras, the Bay Islands, western Cuba and the Yucatan Peninsula should monitor the progress of the depression. A hurricane watch could be issued for portions of the Yucatan Peninsula this evening. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Sixteen was located near latitude 12.5 North, longitude 82.5 West. The depression is moving toward the northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue tonight. On the forecast track, the depression should be nearing the coast of Nicaragua early Thursday, move across northeastern Nicaragua and eastern Honduras late Thursday, and emerge into the northwestern Caribbean Sea on Friday. Maximum sustained winds remain near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. The depression is forecast to become a tropical storm overnight. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: The depression is expected to produce the following rain accumulations through Friday night: Nicaragua...15 to 20 inches, isolated 30 inches Costa Rica and Panama...5 to 10 inches, isolated 20 inches Honduras...2 to 5 inches, isolated 8 inches Heavy rainfall will occur over a wide area, including locations well away from the center along the Pacific coast of Central America. This rainfall could cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to start in the warning area in Nicaragua early on Thursday, and spread into Honduras late Thursday. SURF: Swells generated by the cyclone are affecting portions of the coast of Nicaragua, and will begin to affect other land areas around the northwestern Caribbean later this week. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT. Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Blake
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