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Tropical Depression Ramon Forecast Discussion Number 4
2017-10-05 04:48:42| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1000 PM CDT Wed Oct 04 2017 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 050248 TCDEP4 Tropical Depression Ramon Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192017 1000 PM CDT Wed Oct 04 2017 Mexican radar data, ship observations, and last-light visible imagery indicate that the original low-level center of Ramon has dissipated. Earlier ASCAT data indicated the formation of a new center under convection well to the west, and this has probably become the primary center, if one still exists. As a result, the initial position of Ramon has been adjusted significantly to the west. Whatever remains of Ramon will likely be steered generally westward by a mid-level ridge centered over northern Mexico. Since most of the track guidance no longer depicts a trackable low-level center, the new NHC track forecast follows the trend of the previous advisory, in an effort to maintain some continuity. Therefore, the forecast shows a continued westward motion with a slight increase in forward speed until the cyclone dissipates, in 24 hours or less. Dvorak classifications have decreased and Ramon is now estimated to be a 30 kt tropical depression. All of the dynamical models forecast that Ramon will dissipate quickly, and in fact the most recent runs of the ECMWF and UKMET suggest that only a trough should exist now. There is some indication from the GFS and the GFS-based hurricane models that the mid-level remnants of Ramon could interact with a disturbance to the west in a day or two and regenerate, or contribute to the development of a new tropical cyclone. However, this is not supported by any of the other global models, and 30 kt or more of shear should prohibit significant redevelopment. Even if Ramon dissipates later tonight or tomorrow, locally heavy rainfall is still expected along the immediate coast of southern Mexico through Thursday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/0300Z 14.8N 101.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 05/1200Z 14.8N 104.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 06/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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Summary for Tropical Depression Sixteen (AT1/AL162017)
2017-10-05 04:48:12| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...DEPRESSION HEADING TOWARD THE NICARAGUA COAST... ...FLOODING RAINS EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA... As of 11:00 PM EDT Wed Oct 4 the center of Sixteen was located near 12.8, -82.7 with movement NW at 6 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1004 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression Sixteen Wind Speed Probabilities Number 3
2017-10-05 04:48:12| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC THU OCT 05 2017 000 FONT11 KNHC 050248 PWSAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162017 0300 UTC THU OCT 05 2017 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 82.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT OCEAN CITY MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) PAX RIVER NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) WALLOPS CDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) CHARLOTTESVIL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) RICHMOND VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) DANVILLE VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) NORFOLK NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) NORFOLK VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) OCEANA NAS VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) ELIZABETH CTY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) GREENSBORO NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) RALEIGH NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) ROCKY MT NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) CAPE HATTERAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) FAYETTEVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) CHARLOTTE NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) CHERRY PT NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) NEW RIVER NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) MOREHEAD CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) SURF CITY NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) WILMINGTON NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) BALD HEAD ISL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) FLORENCE SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) COLUMBIA SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 6(10) LITTLE RIVER 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) MYRTLE BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) GEORGETOWN SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) CHARLESTON SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) BEAUFORT MCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 5( 9) ATLANTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 7(17) AUGUSTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 6(13) SAVANNAH GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 5(11) KINGS BAY GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 5(11) WAYCROSS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 6(15) WAYCROSS GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) MAYPORT NS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 4(10) JACKSONVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 4(11) GAINESVILLE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 3(12) DAYTONA BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7) THE VILLAGES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 2( 9) ORLANDO FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7) COCOA BEACH FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) PATRICK AFB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) FT PIERCE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) W PALM BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) MARATHON FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) KEY WEST FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) NAPLES FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) 1( 7) FT MYERS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) 1( 8) VENICE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 6(10) 1(11) TAMPA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) 2(11) CEDAR KEY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) 4(16) CEDAR KEY FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 16(18) 6(24) TALLAHASSEE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) TALLAHASSEE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) ST MARKS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 16(19) 5(24) ST MARKS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) ST MARKS FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) APALACHICOLA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 18(23) 5(28) APALACHICOLA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 1( 8) APALACHICOLA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) GFMX 290N 850W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 17(25) 5(30) GFMX 290N 850W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 1( 8) GFMX 290N 850W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) PANAMA CITY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 23(28) 6(34) PANAMA CITY FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 3(11) PANAMA CITY FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) COLUMBUS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) 7(22) COLUMBUS GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) BIRMINGHAM AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) 6(20) BIRMINGHAM AL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) MONTGOMERY AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 19(20) 7(27) MONTGOMERY AL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) WHITING FLD FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 26(31) 6(37) WHITING FLD FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 2(12) WHITING FLD FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) PENSACOLA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 27(33) 5(38) PENSACOLA FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 2(13) PENSACOLA FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) GFMX 290N 870W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) 27(41) 5(46) GFMX 290N 870W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 11(14) 3(17) GFMX 290N 870W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) MOBILE AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 27(33) 5(38) MOBILE AL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 1(11) MOBILE AL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) GULFPORT MS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 27(34) 3(37) GULFPORT MS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 1(11) GULFPORT MS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) STENNIS MS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 24(31) 3(34) STENNIS MS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 1(11) STENNIS MS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) BURAS LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) 25(39) 2(41) BURAS LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 12(14) 1(15) BURAS LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) GFMX 280N 890W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 27(27) 24(51) 2(53) GFMX 280N 890W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 13(20) 1(21) GFMX 280N 890W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) X( 7) JACKSON MS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 16(17) 3(20) JACKSON MS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) NEW ORLEANS LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 22(30) 3(33) NEW ORLEANS LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 1(10) NEW ORLEANS LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) GFMX 280N 910W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 17(17) 19(36) 1(37) GFMX 280N 910W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 10(14) X(14) GFMX 280N 910W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) BATON ROUGE LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 17(22) 2(24) BATON ROUGE LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) BATON ROUGE LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) MORGAN CITY LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 18(25) 2(27) MORGAN CITY LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) X( 8) MORGAN CITY LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) ALEXANDRIA LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) 2(12) ALEXANDRIA LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) ALEXANDRIA LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) LAFAYETTE LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 12(16) 2(18) LAFAYETTE LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) LAFAYETTE LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) NEW IBERIA LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 13(18) 2(20) NEW IBERIA LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) NEW IBERIA LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) GFMX 280N 930W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 9(16) 1(17) GFMX 280N 930W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) GFMX 280N 930W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) SHREVEPORT LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) FORT POLK LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 1( 9) FORT POLK LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) LAKE CHARLES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) 1(11) LAKE CHARLES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) CAMERON LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 8(11) 1(12) CAMERON LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) CAMERON LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) JASPER TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) KOUNTZE TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) PORT ARTHUR TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 1( 8) GALVESTON TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) HOUSTON TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) FREEPORT TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) GFMX 280N 950W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) HIGH ISLAND TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 1( 7) MATAGORDA TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) PORT O CONNOR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) GFMX 270N 960W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) MERIDA MX 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 12(14) 2(16) X(16) MERIDA MX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) MERIDA MX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) COZUMEL MX 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 28(29) 14(43) 1(44) X(44) COZUMEL MX 50 X X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 7(14) X(14) X(14) COZUMEL MX 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) BELIZE CITY 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) GUANAJA 34 X X( X) 9( 9) 3(12) 1(13) X(13) X(13) GUANAJA 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) PUERTO CABEZAS 34 11 15(26) 1(27) X(27) X(27) X(27) X(27) CP SAN ANTONIO 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 20(21) 14(35) X(35) X(35) CP SAN ANTONIO 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) X( 8) X( 8) CP SAN ANTONIO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) HAVANA 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) X( 8) X( 8) ISLE OF PINES 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 3(10) X(10) X(10) GRAND CAYMAN 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) $$ FORECASTER BERG
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Tropical Depression Sixteen Public Advisory Number 3
2017-10-05 04:48:12| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM EDT Wed Oct 04 2017 000 WTNT31 KNHC 050248 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Sixteen Advisory Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162017 1100 PM EDT Wed Oct 04 2017 ...DEPRESSION HEADING TOWARD THE NICARAGUA COAST... ...FLOODING RAINS EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...12.8N 82.7W ABOUT 70 MI...115 KM WNW OF SAN ANDRES ISLAND ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM SSE OF PUERTO CABEZAS NICARAGUA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Mexico has issued a Hurricane Watch from Punta Herrero to Cabo Catoche. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Sandy Bay Sirpi Nicaragua to Punta Castilla Honduras A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Punta Herrero to Cabo Catoche Mexico A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 12-24 hours. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Interests elsewhere in Honduras, the Bay Islands, western Cuba and the Yucatan Peninsula should monitor the progress of the depression. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Sixteen was located near latitude 12.8 North, longitude 82.7 West. The depression is moving toward the northwest near 6 mph (9 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue through early Thursday. A north-northwestward motion at a faster forward speed is forecast to begin on Thursday and continue through late Friday. On the forecast track, the center of the depression should move across northeastern Nicaragua and eastern Honduras on Thursday and then over the northwestern Caribbean Sea Thursday night and Friday. The center is expected to approach the coast of the Yucatan peninsula late Friday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. The depression is forecast to strengthen to a tropical storm before it moves inland over northeastern Nicaragua tomorrow. Additional strengthening is likely over the northwestern Caribbean Sea Thursday night and Friday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: The depression is expected to produce the following rain accumulations through Friday night: Nicaragua...15 to 20 inches, isolated 30 inches Costa Rica and Panama...5 to 10 inches, isolated 20 inches Honduras...2 to 5 inches, isolated 8 inches Heavy rainfall will occur over a wide area, including locations well away from the center along the Pacific coast of Central America. This rainfall could cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to start in the warning area in Nicaragua early on Thursday, and spread into Honduras late Thursday. Tropical storm and hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area in Mexico beginning late Friday. SURF: Swells generated by the cyclone are affecting portions of the coast of Nicaragua, and will begin to affect other land areas around the northwestern Caribbean later this week. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM EDT. Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Berg
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Tropical Depression Sixteen Forecast Advisory Number 3
2017-10-05 04:47:14| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC THU OCT 05 2017 000 WTNT21 KNHC 050247 TCMAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162017 0300 UTC THU OCT 05 2017 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FROM PUNTA HERRERO TO CABO CATOCHE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SANDY BAY SIRPI NICARAGUA TO PUNTA CASTILLA HONDURAS A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PUNTA HERRERO TO CABO CATOCHE MEXICO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA... IN THIS CASE WITHIN 12-24 HOURS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS... CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN HONDURAS... THE BAY ISLANDS... WESTERN CUBA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THE DEPRESSION. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.8N 82.7W AT 05/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.8N 82.7W AT 05/0300Z AT 05/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.6N 82.6W FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 13.5N 83.2W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 15.1N 83.7W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 17.6N 84.7W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 20.2N 86.3W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 25.5N 88.6W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 60SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 09/0000Z 30.5N 87.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 10/0000Z 36.5N 82.5W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.8N 82.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BERG
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