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Tropical Depression Lee Forecast Discussion Number 14
2017-09-18 10:50:39| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Mon Sep 18 2017 000 WTNT44 KNHC 180850 TCDAT4 Tropical Depression Lee Discussion Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142017 500 AM AST Mon Sep 18 2017 Lee's cloud pattern has deteriorated considerably this morning. All that remains of the deep convection are a few fragmented bands in the northeast quadrant. The initial intensity is generously held at 30 kt for this advisory. Deep-layer shear is expected to increase during the next 12 to 24 hours, and this inhibiting factor should prevent the cyclone from maintaining what is left of the deep convection. Consequently, Lee should degenerate into a remnant low by tonight. The initial motion is estimated to be west-northwestward or 290/11 kt. A west-northwestward to northwestward motion is expected through the entire forecast period, or until the cyclone dissipates in 3 days or earlier. No significant changes were made to the NHC track from previous advisory and the official forecast is based mainly on the HFIP Corrected Consensus technique. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/0900Z 14.1N 39.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 18/1800Z 14.9N 41.2W 25 KT 30 MPH 24H 19/0600Z 16.0N 42.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 19/1800Z 17.1N 44.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 20/0600Z 18.5N 45.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 21/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Roberts
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Summary for Tropical Depression Lee (AT4/AL142017)
2017-09-18 10:50:11| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...POORLY ORGANIZED LEE EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY TONIGHT... As of 5:00 AM AST Mon Sep 18 the center of Lee was located near 14.1, -39.8 with movement WNW at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression Lee Public Advisory Number 14
2017-09-18 10:50:11| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Mon Sep 18 2017 000 WTNT34 KNHC 180850 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Lee Advisory Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142017 500 AM AST Mon Sep 18 2017 ...POORLY ORGANIZED LEE EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY TONIGHT... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.1N 39.8W ABOUT 1060 MI...1710 KM W OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Lee was located near latitude 14.1 North, longitude 39.8 West. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue during the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds remain near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Weakening is expected during the next 48 hours, and Lee is forecast to degenerate into a remnant low by tonight. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Roberts
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Tropical Depression Lee Wind Speed Probabilities Number 14
2017-09-18 10:50:11| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC MON SEP 18 2017 000 FONT14 KNHC 180850 PWSAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION LEE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142017 0900 UTC MON SEP 18 2017 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION LEE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 39.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS
Tropical Depression Lee Forecast Advisory Number 14
2017-09-18 10:49:36| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC MON SEP 18 2017 000 WTNT24 KNHC 180849 TCMAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION LEE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142017 0900 UTC MON SEP 18 2017 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 39.8W AT 18/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 39.8W AT 18/0900Z AT 18/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.9N 39.3W FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 14.9N 41.2W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 16.0N 42.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 17.1N 44.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 18.5N 45.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.1N 39.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/1500Z $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS
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