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Summary for Tropical Depression Lee (AT4/AL142017)
2017-09-18 22:35:08| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...LEE LOSING ORGANIZATION... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW TONIGHT OR TUESDAY... As of 5:00 PM AST Mon Sep 18 the center of Lee was located near 15.0, -42.3 with movement WNW at 16 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression Lee Public Advisory Number 16
2017-09-18 22:35:08| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Mon Sep 18 2017 000 WTNT34 KNHC 182034 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Lee Advisory Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142017 500 PM AST Mon Sep 18 2017 ...LEE LOSING ORGANIZATION... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW TONIGHT OR TUESDAY... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.0N 42.3W ABOUT 1220 MI...1960 KM W OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Lee was located near latitude 15.0 North, longitude 42.3 West. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 16 mph. A turn to the northwest with a decrease in forward speed is expected to occur tonight. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Weakening is expected, and Lee is forecast to degenerate into a remnant low tonight or Tuesday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Tropical Depression Lee Wind Speed Probabilities Number 16
2017-09-18 22:35:08| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC MON SEP 18 2017 000 FONT14 KNHC 182034 PWSAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION LEE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142017 2100 UTC MON SEP 18 2017 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION LEE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 42.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
Tropical Depression Lee Graphics
2017-09-18 16:46:03| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 18 Sep 2017 14:46:03 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 18 Sep 2017 14:46:03 GMT
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Tropical Depression Lee Forecast Discussion Number 15
2017-09-18 16:41:08| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Mon Sep 18 2017 000 WTNT44 KNHC 181441 TCDAT4 Tropical Depression Lee Discussion Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142017 1100 AM AST Mon Sep 18 2017 After being nearly devoid of thunderstorm activity overnight, a burst of deep convection has developed near and to the east of the center this morning. The initial intensity is held at 30 kt, in agreement with earlier ASCAT data. Despite the development of deep convection, the overall forecast reasoning for Lee's future intensity is unchanged. Lee is expected to be embedded within very strong westerly to northwesterly shear during the next couple of days. These hostile winds, combined with a dry environment, should cause Lee to weaken and become a remnant low in about 24 hours. The global models suggest that Lee could open up into a trough within the next 2 to 3 days. Since the models remain in good agreement, and the NHC intensity forecast is basically the same as the previous one. Lee is moving west-northwestward at 12 kt on the southwest side of a mid-level high pressure system. A turn to the northwest with a decrease in forward speed is expected by tonight as the tropical depression moves toward a large-scale trough. A continued northwestward motion is forecast until the system dissipates over the central Atlantic. There is not much spread in the model solutions, and the NHC track forecast lies near the middle of the guidance envelope. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/1500Z 14.1N 40.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 19/0000Z 14.8N 41.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 19/1200Z 16.0N 43.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 20/0000Z 17.4N 44.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 20/1200Z 18.9N 45.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 21/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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