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Tropical Storm Lane Forecast Advisory Number 7
2018-08-16 16:55:13| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC THU AUG 16 2018 868 WTPZ24 KNHC 161455 TCMEP4 TROPICAL STORM LANE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142018 1500 UTC THU AUG 16 2018 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.6N 127.6W AT 16/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 40NE 40SE 0SW 20NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 45SE 0SW 45NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.6N 127.6W AT 16/1500Z AT 16/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 10.5N 127.0W FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 10.8N 129.4W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 11.2N 132.1W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 11.7N 134.9W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 12.2N 137.6W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 15SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 80SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 13.5N 142.7W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 60SW 80NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 20/1200Z 14.7N 147.3W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 21/1200Z 15.3N 151.5W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 10.6N 127.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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Tropical Storm Lane Graphics
2018-08-16 10:52:29| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 16 Aug 2018 08:52:29 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 16 Aug 2018 09:28:18 GMT
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Tropical Storm Lane Forecast Discussion Number 6
2018-08-16 10:51:16| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT Thu Aug 16 2018 755 WTPZ44 KNHC 160851 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Lane Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142018 200 AM PDT Thu Aug 16 2018 The latest satellite images suggest that Lane is getting better organized with its cloud pattern now consisting of a central dense overcast feature and curved bands over the western semicircle. There is a large spread in the intensity estimates tonight. All of the Dvorak-based estimates have increased to 3.5/55 kt. However, an ASCAT pass around 0600 UTC showed maximum winds of only 35 kt. Since Lane is a compact system, it is possible that the resolution of ASCAT is not sufficient to capture its maximum winds, therefore, the initial intensity is held at 45 kt as a compromise of these data. It should be noted that this is a low confidence initial intensity estimate. Lane is now moving due westward at 10 kt steered by the flow on the south side of a deep-layer ridge. The global models all show a mid- to upper-level trough off the Baja California peninsula cutting off and moving westward during the next few days. This feature will weaken the ridge a little, and that should cause Lane to make a slight turn to the west-northwest in a couple of days. The models are tightly clustered, and the NHC track forecast lies near the middle of the guidance envelope. Based on this forecast, Lane is expected to cross into the Central Pacific basin this weekend. The environmental conditions appear quite favorable for Lane to strengthen. During the next several days, the wind shear near Lane is expected to be less than 10 kt, humidity values relatively high, and SSTs sufficently warm. Therefore, steady or even rapid strengthening appears likely. The NHC intensity forecast continues to lean toward the higher end of the model guidance, and shows Lane becoming a hurricane in 12 to 24 hours, and a major hurricane within the next few days. This forecast is in best agreement with the HCCA model. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/0900Z 10.4N 126.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 16/1800Z 10.6N 128.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 17/0600Z 10.9N 131.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 17/1800Z 11.4N 133.7W 85 KT 100 MPH 48H 18/0600Z 11.8N 136.4W 95 KT 110 MPH 72H 19/0600Z 13.1N 141.6W 105 KT 120 MPH 96H 20/0600Z 14.4N 146.3W 110 KT 125 MPH 120H 21/0600Z 15.1N 150.3W 100 KT 115 MPH $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Tropical Storm Lane Wind Speed Probabilities Number 6
2018-08-16 10:50:42| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC THU AUG 16 2018 797 FOPZ14 KNHC 160850 PWSEP4 TROPICAL STORM LANE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142018 0900 UTC THU AUG 16 2018 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LANE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 10.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 126.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 10N 130W 34 X 43(43) 1(44) X(44) X(44) X(44) X(44) 10N 130W 50 X 17(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) 10N 130W 64 X 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 10N 135W 34 X 1( 1) 13(14) 24(38) 2(40) X(40) X(40) 10N 135W 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) 10N 135W 64 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 15N 135W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) 2(10) X(10) X(10) 10N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 19(22) 2(24) X(24) 10N 140W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) 10N 140W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 15N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 38(40) 2(42) 1(43) 15N 140W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) 1(15) X(15) 15N 140W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) 10N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) 2(13) 10N 145W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) 10N 145W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 15N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 57(63) 5(68) 15N 145W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 37(37) 5(42) 15N 145W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 22(22) 4(26) 20N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) 10N 150W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 15N 150W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 38(49) 15N 150W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 22(24) 15N 150W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 13(14) 20N 150W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 20N 150W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 20N 150W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 20N 151W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 20N 151W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) BUOY 51004 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 18(18) BUOY 51004 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) BUOY 51004 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 20N 154W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 15N 155W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 15N 155W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 15N 155W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 18N 156W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) SOUTH POINT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
Summary for Tropical Storm Lane (EP4/EP142018)
2018-08-16 10:50:12| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...LANE FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN QUICKLY DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS... As of 2:00 AM PDT Thu Aug 16 the center of Lane was located near 10.4, -126.4 with movement W at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1003 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.
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