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Tropical Depression Four-E Public Advisory Number 7
2019-07-14 11:25:42| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 AM MDT Sun Jul 14 2019 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 140925 CCA TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Four-E Advisory Number 7...Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042019 300 AM MDT Sun Jul 14 2019 Corrected headline ...DEPRESSION LIKELY TO WEAKEN INTO A REMNANT LOW LATER TODAY... SUMMARY OF 300 AM MDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.2N 114.8W ABOUT 455 MI...730 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 AM MDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Four-E was located near latitude 18.2 North, longitude 114.8 West. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h). A turn to the west is expected to occur later today or tonight. Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts. The depression is expected to weaken to a remnant low later today and dissipate within a day or so thereafter. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 AM MDT. $$ Forecaster Latto
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Tropical Depression Four-E Graphics
2019-07-14 10:33:30| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 14 Jul 2019 08:33:30 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 14 Jul 2019 09:30:43 GMT
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Tropical Depression Four-E Forecast Discussion Number 7
2019-07-14 10:32:39| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 AM MDT Sun Jul 14 2019 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 140832 TCDEP4 Tropical Depression Four-E Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042019 300 AM MDT Sun Jul 14 2019 The depression has been devoid of significant convection since early Saturday evening. Even in the convective maximum period, the system has only been able to muster intermittent individual cells producing anvils that are being subsequently blown west of the circulation by about 20 kt of easterly shear. A recent scatterometer pass showed peak winds of around 25 kt in the northeastern quadrant, and this is the initial advisory intensity. The stable environment ahead of the cyclone is not conducive for its longevity and it will likely become a remnant low later today. The remnant low should dissipate within a couple of days. The motion continues west-northwestward, or 290/12 kt. A low- to mid-level ridge to the north of the cyclone should cause a turn toward the west later today or tonight. The official track forecast is essentially the same as the previous one. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/0900Z 18.2N 114.8W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 14/1800Z 18.5N 116.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 15/0600Z 18.8N 118.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 15/1800Z 18.8N 120.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 16/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Latto/Cangialosi
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Tropical Depression Four-E Wind Speed Probabilities Number 7
2019-07-14 10:32:39| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC SUN JUL 14 2019 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 140832 PWSEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042019 0900 UTC SUN JUL 14 2019 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 114.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 25 KTS...30 MPH...45 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 20N 120W 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER LATTO/CANGIALOSI
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Tropical Depression Four-E Forecast Advisory Number 7
2019-07-14 10:32:09| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC SUN JUL 14 2019 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 140832 TCMEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042019 0900 UTC SUN JUL 14 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.2N 114.8W AT 14/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.2N 114.8W AT 14/0900Z AT 14/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 114.2W FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 18.5N 116.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 18.8N 118.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 18.8N 120.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.2N 114.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/1500Z $$ FORECASTER LATTO/CANGIALOSI
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