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Tropical Depression Four-E Public Advisory Number 4

2018-06-15 16:39:33| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 1000 AM CDT Fri Jun 15 2018 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 151439 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Four-E Advisory Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042018 1000 AM CDT Fri Jun 15 2018 ...DEPRESSION PRODUCING TORRENTIAL RAINFALL OVER GUERRERO AND OAXACA... SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.8N 99.7W ABOUT 75 MI...125 KM S OF ACAPULCO MEXICO ABOUT 80 MI...130 KM WSW OF PUNTA MALDONADO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Mexico has extended the Tropical Storm Warning for the coast of Mexico eastward to Lagunas de Chacahua. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Tecpan de Galeana to Lagunas de Chacahua A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected within the watch area, in this case within 12-24 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Four-E was located near latitude 15.8 North, longitude 99.7 West. The depression is moving toward the north-northeast near 3 mph (6 km/h) and a slow northeastward motion is expected to begin later today. On the forecast track, the center of the depression is expected to make landfall on Saturday within the warning area and move farther inland on Sunday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. The depression is forecast to become a tropical storm later today, quickly weaken after landfall on Saturday, and then dissipate on Sunday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: The depression is forecast to produce 3 to 6 inches of rainfall along the Guerrero and Oaxaca coasts, including the city of Acapulco, with isolated higher amounts of 10 inches possible. These rains are likely to produce life-threatening flash floods and mud slides, especially in areas of higher terrain. Farther inland across the states of Guerrero and Oaxaca, rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches with isolated amounts of 4 inches are forecast. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area starting early Saturday. SURF: Swells generated by the depression are affecting portions of the coast of southern Mexico. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT. Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Blake

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Tropical Depression Four-E Forecast Advisory Number 4

2018-06-15 16:38:33| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 1500 UTC FRI JUN 15 2018 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 151438 TCMEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042018 1500 UTC FRI JUN 15 2018 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS EXTENDED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE COAST OF MEXICO EASTWARD TO LAGUNAS DE CHACAHUA. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * TECPAN DE GALEANA TO LAGUNAS DE CHACAHUA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 12 TO 24 HOURS. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 99.7W AT 15/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 15 DEGREES AT 3 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 99.7W AT 15/1500Z AT 15/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 99.8W FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 16.1N 99.4W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 16.5N 99.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 20NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 16.8N 98.7W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 17.2N 98.6W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.8N 99.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE

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Summary for Tropical Depression Four-E (EP4/EP042018)

2018-06-15 13:55:03| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

...DEPRESSION DRIFTING OFF THE COAST OF SOUTHERN MEXICO... ...HEAVY RAINS CONTINUING IN THE ACAPULCO AREA... As of 7:00 AM CDT Fri Jun 15 the center of Four-E was located near 15.4, -100.1 with movement Stationary. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

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Tropical Depression Four-E Public Advisory Number 3A

2018-06-15 13:55:03| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 700 AM CDT Fri Jun 15 2018 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 151154 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Four-E Intermediate Advisory Number 3A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042018 700 AM CDT Fri Jun 15 2018 ...DEPRESSION DRIFTING OFF THE COAST OF SOUTHERN MEXICO... ...HEAVY RAINS CONTINUING IN THE ACAPULCO AREA... SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.4N 100.1W ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM S OF ACAPULCO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Tecpan de Galeana to Punta Maldonado A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected within the watch area, generally within 36 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 700 AM CDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Four-E was estimated near latitude 15.4 North, longitude 100.1 West. The depression is currently stationary, but a slow drift toward the northeast and then north is expected through the weekend. On the forecast track, the center of the depression could reach the coast of southern Mexico within in the warning area by Sunday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast, and the depression is expected to become a tropical storm before it reaches the coast of southern Mexico. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: The depression is forecast to produce 3 to 6 inches of rainfall along the Guerrero coast, including the city of Acapulco, with isolated higher amounts approaching 8 inches possible. These rains could produce life-threatening flash floods and mud slides. Farther inland across the state of Guerrero, rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches with isolated amounts of 4 inches are forecast. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area Saturday or Saturday night. SURF: Swells generated by the depression are affecting portions of the coast of southern Mexico. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Blake

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