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Tropical Depression Four-E Graphics
2019-07-12 22:31:15| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 12 Jul 2019 20:31:15 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 12 Jul 2019 21:31:07 GMT
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Tropical Depression Four-E Forecast Discussion Number 1
2019-07-12 22:30:48| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 PM MDT Fri Jul 12 2019 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 122030 TCDEP4 Tropical Depression Four-E Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042019 300 PM MDT Fri Jul 12 2019 Convection associated with an area of low pressure located south of the southwestern coast of Mexico has increased substantially since last night. Furthermore, ASCAT data from 1630 UTC show that the low has developed a small but well-defined center with maximum winds of 25-30 kt. The system now meets the criteria for a tropical cyclone, and advisories have been initiated on Tropical Depression Four-E. The initial intensity is 30 kt, based on the ASCAT data. The depression is being sheared by strong upper-level easterly winds and is not expected to last long. In fact all of the dynamical models suggest that the depression will weaken and become a post-tropical low in about 36 h, if not sooner. The statistical guidance is a little higher, but still generally agrees that the depression will not strengthen much. The official forecast shows the cyclone becoming a short-lived tropical storm and then slowly weakening through 48 h, and is generally close to IVCN. The depression is moving west-northwestward, or 290/11 kt along the southwestern periphery of a low- to mid-level ridge. There is surprisingly little agreement in the track guidance on the track of the depression for the brief period it survives, but they all generally show it moving near its current heading for a day or so. A turn toward the west is expected by Sunday as the cyclone weakens and becomes shallow. I have no reason to favor any one solution over another at this point, so the NHC forecast closely follows the consensus at all forecast times. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 12/2100Z 15.1N 107.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 13/0600Z 16.0N 109.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 13/1800Z 17.1N 111.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 14/0600Z 17.7N 113.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 14/1800Z 18.1N 115.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 15/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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Tropical Depression Four-E Wind Speed Probabilities Number 1
2019-07-12 22:30:48| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC FRI JUL 12 2019 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 122030 PWSEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042019 2100 UTC FRI JUL 12 2019 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 107.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 110W 34 3 3( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) 6( 6) 16(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) ISLA CLARION 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 115W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
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Summary for Tropical Depression Four-E (EP4/EP042019)
2019-07-12 22:30:17| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS WELL SOUTH OF MEXICO... ...FORECAST TO REMAIN WELL OFFSHORE... As of 3:00 PM MDT Fri Jul 12 the center of Four-E was located near 15.1, -107.5 with movement WNW at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression Four-E Public Advisory Number 1
2019-07-12 22:30:17| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 PM MDT Fri Jul 12 2019 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 122030 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Four-E Advisory Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042019 300 PM MDT Fri Jul 12 2019 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS WELL SOUTH OF MEXICO... ...FORECAST TO REMAIN WELL OFFSHORE... SUMMARY OF 300 PM MDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.1N 107.5W ABOUT 340 MI...550 KM SW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 PM MDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Four-E was located near latitude 15.1 North, longitude 107.5 West. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue for the next day or so. A turn toward the west is expected on Sunday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next 48 hours, however the cyclone could become a short-lived tropical storm later today or on Saturday. Weakening is expected by late Saturday and the system is forecast to become a remnant low by Sunday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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