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Tropical Storm COSME Forecast Advisory Number 17
2013-06-27 16:40:25| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC THU JUN 27 2013 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 271440 TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM COSME FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032013 1500 UTC THU JUN 27 2013 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.4N 120.9W AT 27/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 14 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 75NE 0SE 0SW 75NW. 12 FT SEAS..300NE 300SE 240SW 240NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.4N 120.9W AT 27/1500Z AT 27/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.1N 120.1W FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 20.9N 123.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 21.4N 125.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 21.5N 128.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 21.5N 131.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 21.5N 135.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 01/1200Z 22.0N 139.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 02/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.4N 120.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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Tropical Storm COSME Graphics
2013-06-27 10:34:00| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 27 Jun 2013 08:34:00 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 27 Jun 2013 08:31:46 GMT
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Tropical Storm COSME Forecast Discussion Number 16
2013-06-27 10:32:55| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT THU JUN 27 2013 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 270832 TCDEP3 TROPICAL STORM COSME DISCUSSION NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032013 200 AM PDT THU JUN 27 2013 ALL ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH COSME HAS DISAPPEARED DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. MICROWAVE DATA SHOW THAT THE LOW AND MID-LEVEL CENTERS OF COSME HAVE DECOUPLED...WITH THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION WELL SOUTHEAST OF THE MID-LEVEL CENTER. THE INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 40 KT...NEAR AN AVERAGE OF A PAIR OF ASCAT PASSES FROM 0445 AND 0530 UTC. WITH THE CYCLONE FORECAST TO MOVE OVER PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATERS FOR THE NEXT 24H...COSME IS PROBABLY FINISHED AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WITH ORGANIZED CONVECTION UNLIKELY TO REDEVELOP. REMNANT LOW STATUS IS LIKELY LATE TODAY ALONG WITH A SLOW WEAKENING OF THE WINDS...IN AGREEMENT WITH THE GLOBAL MODELS AND THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS A BIT FASTER AND TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ONE...290/14. THE CYCLONE CONTINUES ON TRACK AS IT REMAINS SOUTH OF A RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC. THE REMNANTS OF COSME WILL PROBABLY TURN WESTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE LOW-LEVEL RIDGE...AND SLOW SOMEWHAT IN A COUPLE DAYS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS VERY CLOSE TO THE EASTERN PACIFIC TRACK CONSENSUS GUIDANCE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/0900Z 20.1N 119.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 27/1800Z 20.7N 121.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 24H 28/0600Z 21.4N 124.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 28/1800Z 21.8N 127.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 29/0600Z 21.8N 130.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 30/0600Z 21.8N 134.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 01/0600Z 22.0N 139.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 02/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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Tropical Storm COSME Wind Speed Probabilities Number 16
2013-06-27 10:31:24| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC THU JUN 27 2013 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 270831 PWSEP3 TROPICAL STORM COSME WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032013 0900 UTC THU JUN 27 2013 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM COSME WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 119.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED 1 16 19 30 34 34 NA TROP DEPRESSION 34 57 47 44 44 46 NA TROPICAL STORM 65 27 32 24 22 19 NA HURRICANE X X 1 1 1 X NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 X X 1 1 1 X NA HUR CAT 2 X X X X X X NA HUR CAT 3 X X X X X X NA HUR CAT 4 X X X X X X NA HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 35KT 25KT 25KT 20KT 20KT 20KT NA II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
Summary for Tropical Storm COSME (EP3/EP032013)
2013-06-27 10:30:54| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...COSME LIKELY TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW LATER TODAY... As of 2:00 AM PDT Thu Jun 27 the center of COSME was located near 20.1, -119.3 with movement WNW at 16 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1002 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
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