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Tropical Storm Cosme Wind Speed Probabilities Number 2

2019-07-06 22:40:32| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 2100 UTC SAT JUL 06 2019 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 062040 PWSEP3 TROPICAL STORM COSME WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032019 2100 UTC SAT JUL 06 2019 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM COSME WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 116.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ISLA CLARION 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 15N 120W 34 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 120W 34 1 8( 9) 18(27) 8(35) 2(37) X(37) X(37) 20N 120W 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 20N 120W 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 20N 125W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) $$ FORECASTER BLAKE

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Tropical Storm Cosme Forecast Discussion Number 2

2019-07-06 22:40:28| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 200 PM PDT Sat Jul 06 2019 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 062040 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Cosme Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032019 200 PM PDT Sat Jul 06 2019 Cosme continues to have a lopsided appearance in satellite images, with all of its associated deep convection east of the center. While there have been some cells near the core of the cyclone, they have not lasted long due to plentiful dry air in the mid-levels. The initial wind speed is kept at 45 kt in agreement with recent ASCAT data, again well above any Dvorak estimates. While shear is clearly decreasing near the center, it will take some time for the large cyclone to mix out the aforementioned dry near and west of the core. In addition, Cosme has only about 36 hours over marginal SSTs before reaching cool waters. These factors indicate little significant strengthening this weekend, and a gradual weakening early next week due to cooler waters and higher shear. The HWRF shows some strengthening right before Cosme crosses into the cool waters, but the rest of the models holds Cosme's intensity flat or decreasing during the next few days. The official intensity forecast is similar to the previous one, which goes with the weaker solution provided by the bulk of the models. The center has been difficult to track, but ASCAT and visible satellite suggest it is moving a bit slower and poleward than before, or 295/12. The storm is expected to be steered to the west- northwest during the next day or so due to a subtropical ridge over Mexico. However all of the models show a break in the ridge forming between 120-130W, which should induce a motion more to the northwest by Monday. Guidance has shifted a bit to the north on this cycle, and the ECMWF solution remains a bit of an outlier to the southwest. The new NHC forecast is adjusted slightly to the northeast of the previous one, but is southwest of the model consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/2100Z 16.2N 116.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 07/0600Z 16.9N 117.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 07/1800Z 17.8N 119.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 08/0600Z 18.8N 120.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 08/1800Z 19.8N 121.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 09/1800Z 21.0N 122.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 10/1800Z 21.5N 125.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 11/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake

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Tropical Storm Cosme Forecast Advisory Number 2

2019-07-06 22:40:24| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 2100 UTC SAT JUL 06 2019 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 062039 TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM COSME FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032019 2100 UTC SAT JUL 06 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 116.3W AT 06/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT.......140NE 0SE 0SW 110NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 270SE 45SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 116.3W AT 06/2100Z AT 06/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 115.8W FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 16.9N 117.8W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...110NE 0SE 20SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 17.8N 119.2W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 18.8N 120.3W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 19.8N 121.1W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 0SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 21.0N 122.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 10/1800Z 21.5N 125.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 11/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.2N 116.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE

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Tropical Storm Cosme Forecast Discussion Number 1

2019-07-06 16:03:14| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 800 AM PDT Sat Jul 06 2019 720 WTPZ43 KNHC 061403 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Cosme Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032019 800 AM PDT Sat Jul 06 2019 The broad area of low pressure that we have been monitoring for several days has finally consolidated into a tropical storm. Satellite images show that a well-defined center is present on the western side of an area of deep convection which has been getting closer to the center. The initial wind speed is set to 45 kt in agreement with the overnight scatterometer data, which is higher than what Dvorak-only estimates would suggest. Shear near Cosme has been decreasing during the overnight hours, with cirrus cloud motions suggesting that easterly flow is overspreading the circulation. However, it will take some time for the large cyclone to overcome the very dry mid-level air near and west of the core. In addition, Cosme has only about 36 hours over lukewarm SSTs before reaching cool waters. These factors suggest little significant strengthening this weekend, and a gradual weakening early next week due to sub-26C waters and higher shear. Only the HWRF shows any significant increase in wind speed, with the rest of the models holding Cosme's intensity flat or decreasing during the next few days. The official intensity forecast goes with the latter solution, not too far from the model consensus. An uncertain estimate of initial motion is 290/12. Cosme should be steered to the west-northwest for the next day or so due to a subtropical ridge over Mexico. However all of the models show a break in the ridge forming between 120-130W, which will likely induce a motion more to the northwest by Monday. There isn't a lot of agreement, however, on exactly when that turns occurs, with the GFS-based guidance and UKMET turning the system the system earlier than the ECMWF and most of its ensemble. I don't have a lot of reason to favor either solution at this time, so the forecast will stay close to the eastern Pacific track model consensus TVCE. Based on SSTs and model-simulated satellite data, Cosme should become a non-convective remnant low in about 3 days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/1500Z 15.6N 115.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 07/0000Z 16.3N 117.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 07/1200Z 17.0N 119.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 08/0000Z 17.9N 120.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 08/1200Z 18.8N 121.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 09/1200Z 20.2N 122.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 10/1200Z 21.0N 125.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 11/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake

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