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Post-Tropical Cyclone COSME Forecast Discussion Number 18
2013-06-27 22:32:31| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT THU JUN 27 2013 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 272032 TCDEP3 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE COSME DISCUSSION NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032013 200 PM PDT THU JUN 27 2013 COSME CONSISTS OF A LARGE SWIRL OF LOW/MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE. PASSIVE WIND DATA FROM A SERIES OF SSM/IS OVERPASSES SUGGESTS THAT THE MAXIMUM WINDS HAVE DROPPED BELOW TROPICAL-STORM FORCE. BASED ON THIS AND THE LACK OF DEEP CONVECTION...IT IS ESTIMATED THAT COSME HAS DEGENERATED TO A REMNANT LOW PRESSURE AREA. THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 285/15. THE SYSTEM SHOULD GRADUALLY TURN TOWARD THE WEST DURING THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS AS IT IS STEERED BY A LOW/MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO ITS NORTH. THE REMNANTS ARE LIKELY TO SLOW THEIR FORWARD SPEED BY 72-96 HR AS THEY APPROACH A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND REMAINS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY ON COSME BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANT LOW PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN01 KWBC. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/2100Z 20.9N 122.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 12H 28/0600Z 21.3N 124.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 28/1800Z 21.5N 127.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 29/0600Z 21.5N 130.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 29/1800Z 21.5N 132.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 30/1800Z 21.5N 137.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 01/1800Z 22.0N 140.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 02/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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Summary for Post-Tropical Cyclone COSME (EP3/EP032013)
2013-06-27 22:31:29| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...COSME DEGENERATES TO A REMNANT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE... ...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY... As of 2:00 PM PDT Thu Jun 27 the center of COSME was located near 20.9, -122.6 with movement WNW at 17 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1004 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Post-Tropical Cyclone COSME Public Advisory Number 18
2013-06-27 22:31:29| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT THU JUN 27 2013 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 272031 TCPEP3 BULLETIN POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE COSME ADVISORY NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032013 200 PM PDT THU JUN 27 2013 ...COSME DEGENERATES TO A REMNANT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE... ...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY... SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.9N 122.6W ABOUT 825 MI...1330 KM W OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE COSME WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 122.6 WEST. THE POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 17 MPH...28 KM/H...AND A TURN TOWARD THE WEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SLOW WEAKENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF...LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY COSME ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO FROM NEAR ACAPULCO TO LOS MOCHIS...AND THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. THESE SWELLS SHOULD SUBSIDE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- THIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANT LOW PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN01 KWBC. $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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Post-Tropical Cyclone COSME Wind Speed Probabilities Number 18
2013-06-27 22:31:29| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC THU JUN 27 2013 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 272031 PWSEP3 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE COSME WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032013 2100 UTC THU JUN 27 2013 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE COSME WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 122.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED 3 16 19 30 34 34 NA TROP DEPRESSION 64 56 47 44 44 46 NA TROPICAL STORM 34 28 33 25 22 20 NA HURRICANE X X 1 1 1 X NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 X X 1 1 1 X NA HUR CAT 2 X X X X X X NA HUR CAT 3 X X X X X X NA HUR CAT 4 X X X X X X NA HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 30KT 25KT 25KT 20KT 20KT 20KT NA II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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Post-Tropical Cyclone COSME Forecast Advisory Number 18
2013-06-27 22:30:57| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC THU JUN 27 2013 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 272030 TCMEP3 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE COSME FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032013 2100 UTC THU JUN 27 2013 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.9N 122.6W AT 27/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 15 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. 12 FT SEAS..240NE 180SE 90SW 180NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.9N 122.6W AT 27/2100Z AT 27/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.7N 121.8W FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 21.3N 124.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 21.5N 127.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 21.5N 130.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 21.5N 132.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 21.5N 137.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 01/1800Z 22.0N 140.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 02/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.9N 122.6W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANT LOW PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN01 KWBC. $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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