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Tropical Storm Ophelia Public Advisory Number 3
2017-10-09 22:37:19| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Mon Oct 09 2017 000 WTNT32 KNHC 092037 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Ophelia Advisory Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172017 500 PM AST Mon Oct 09 2017 ...OPHELIA STRENGTHENS A LITTLE MORE... ...NO THREAT TO ANY LAND AREAS... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...31.5N 39.6W ABOUT 845 MI...1355 KM WSW OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 55 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Ophelia was located near latitude 31.5 North, longitude 39.6 West. Ophelia is moving toward the northeast near 3 mph (6 km/h). A slow motion toward the east-northeast and east is forecast to occur later tonight, followed by a turn toward the southeast on Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Tropical Storm Ophelia Wind Speed Probabilities Number 3
2017-10-09 22:37:19| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC MON OCT 09 2017 000 FONT12 KNHC 092037 PWSAT2 TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172017 2100 UTC MON OCT 09 2017 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 39.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT PONTA DELGADA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) $$ FORECASTER STEWART
Tropical Storm Ophelia Forecast Advisory Number 3
2017-10-09 22:36:51| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC MON OCT 09 2017 000 WTNT22 KNHC 092036 TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172017 2100 UTC MON OCT 09 2017 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.5N 39.6W AT 09/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 55 DEGREES AT 3 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 60NE 40SE 0SW 30NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.5N 39.6W AT 09/2100Z AT 09/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.5N 39.7W FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 31.6N 39.1W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 31.4N 38.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 30.8N 37.9W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 30.1N 37.6W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 29.7N 36.1W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 70SE 40SW 40NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 13/1800Z 31.0N 33.7W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 14/1800Z 32.4N 30.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.5N 39.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/0300Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Tropical Storm Ophelia Graphics
2017-10-09 16:44:14| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 09 Oct 2017 14:44:14 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 09 Oct 2017 14:44:14 GMT
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Summary for Tropical Storm Ophelia (AT2/AL172017)
2017-10-09 16:38:18| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS INTO TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC... As of 11:00 AM AST Mon Oct 9 the center of Ophelia was located near 31.4, -39.9 with movement NNE at 5 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1008 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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