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Tropical Storm Ophelia Forecast Advisory Number 7
2017-10-10 22:37:29| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC TUE OCT 10 2017 000 WTNT22 KNHC 102037 TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172017 2100 UTC TUE OCT 10 2017 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.1N 38.0W AT 10/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST OR 135 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 0NE 30SE 30SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 70SE 60SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.1N 38.0W AT 10/2100Z AT 10/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.3N 38.2W FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 30.6N 37.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 30SE 30SW 0NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 30.2N 36.8W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 30.2N 36.4W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 15SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 30.5N 35.6W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 70SE 70SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 32.0N 32.2W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 70SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 14/1800Z 34.7N 25.8W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 15/1800Z 39.0N 17.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.1N 38.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/0300Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Tropical Storm Ophelia Graphics
2017-10-10 16:59:43| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 10 Oct 2017 14:59:43 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 10 Oct 2017 14:59:43 GMT
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Tropical Storm Ophelia Forecast Discussion Number 6
2017-10-10 16:59:28| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Tue Oct 10 2017 000 WTNT42 KNHC 101459 TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Ophelia Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172017 1100 AM AST Tue Oct 10 2017 Convective banding has continued to become better defined since the previous advisory, and an eye-like feature has developed in the center of the convection. However, despite the much improved satellite appearance, it appears that the increased convective organization has not yet translated into an increase in the surface winds based on a 1204Z ASCAT-B overpass, which only showed winds of 30-31 kt in the southern quadrant. Some undersampling is likely due to the small 25-nmi radius of maximum winds, and two nearby ships were under-sampled by at least 5 kt. Dvorak intensity estimates range from T2.3/33 kt from UW-CIMSS to T3.0/45 kt from TAFB to T4.0/65 kt from SAB. For now, the initial intensity will remain at 45 kt, which is an average of the scatterometer winds and all of the other available intensity estimates. Ophelia has been lumbering along slowly toward the southeast during the past 6 hours, and the initial motion estimate is now 130/04 kt. The latest model guidance remains in excellent agreement on the cyclone moving slowly toward the southeast for next 48 hours or so. By 72 hours, Ophelia is expected to turn northeastward and gradually accelerate into the westerlies ahead of a deep-layer trough. Since the NHC model guidance is tightly packed about the previous advisory track, only minor adjustments were made for this advisory. The intensity forecast isn't as straightforward as the track forecast due to the aforementioned differences in the intensity estimates. However, given that both the GFS and ECMWF models accurately predicted much lower intensity values of 35-40 kt for the 1200Z initial time period, a blend of those models were used to construct the intensity forecast for this advisory package. In addition to the slightly lower intensity forecast, the wind radii were also decreased both at the initial time and throughout the forecast period. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/1500Z 31.5N 38.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 11/0000Z 30.9N 37.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 11/1200Z 30.2N 37.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 12/0000Z 29.8N 36.9W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 12/1200Z 30.0N 36.2W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 13/1200Z 31.2N 33.8W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 14/1200Z 33.4N 28.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 120H 15/1200Z 36.0N 21.5W 70 KT 80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Summary for Tropical Storm Ophelia (AT2/AL172017)
2017-10-10 16:53:54| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...OPHELIA GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED OVER THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY THURSDAY... As of 11:00 AM AST Tue Oct 10 the center of Ophelia was located near 31.5, -38.3 with movement SE at 5 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1002 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.
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Tropical Storm Ophelia Public Advisory Number 6
2017-10-10 16:53:54| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Tue Oct 10 2017 000 WTNT32 KNHC 101453 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Ophelia Advisory Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172017 1100 AM AST Tue Oct 10 2017 ...OPHELIA GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED OVER THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY THURSDAY... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...31.5N 38.3W ABOUT 780 MI...1260 KM WSW OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...SE OR 130 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Ophelia was located near latitude 31.5 North, longitude 38.3 West. Ophelia is moving toward the southeast near 5 mph (7 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue during the next day or two. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Ophelia is expected to become a hurricane by Thursday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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