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Tropical Storm Ophelia Forecast Discussion Number 8
2017-10-11 04:36:30| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Tue Oct 10 2017 000 WTNT42 KNHC 110236 TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Ophelia Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172017 1100 PM AST Tue Oct 10 2017 Ophelia has lost some of its outer banding this evening, but a well-defined band of convection remains over the southeastern and southern portion of the circulation. A 2322 UTC ASCAT overpass again suggests that the winds are not as strong what is indicated by the Dvorak satellite estimates. The highest winds in the ASCAT pass were 35 kt, but with some undersampling consideration the initial intensity is set to 45 kt. Ophelia is moving southeastward or 140/5 kt. The cyclone should continue to move southeastward or east-southeastward during the next 24 hours while it remains embedded within a mid- to upper-level trough. After that time, Ophelia is forecast to turn eastward, then northeastward and begin to accelerate by day 3 ahead of a deepening mid-latitude trough over the north-central Atlantic. The latest run of the GFS shifted eastward and is very similar to the 12Z ECMWF, and the previous NHC track forecast. These typically reliable models are along the southern edge of the track envelope, and the NHC forecast remains there as well. The cyclone is expected to be within a low shear environment and over marginally warm sea surface temperatures during the next 2 to 3 days. These conditions favor strengthening and the NHC forecast again calls for Ophelia to become a hurricane in about 36 hours, although the forecast wind speed through 24 hours is slightly less than the previous advisory due to the lower initial intensity. Later in the period, baroclinic dynamics are expected to keep Ophelia a strong cyclone over the northeastern Atlantic through day 5 when the system is forecast to become fully extratropical. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 11/0300Z 30.7N 37.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 11/1200Z 30.3N 37.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 12/0000Z 30.1N 36.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 12/1200Z 30.2N 36.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 13/0000Z 30.7N 35.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 14/0000Z 32.5N 30.8W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 15/0000Z 35.7N 23.2W 70 KT 80 MPH 120H 16/0000Z 41.0N 14.0W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Brown
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Summary for Tropical Storm Ophelia (AT2/AL172017)
2017-10-11 04:36:01| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...OPHELIA MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD... ...FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY THURSDAY... As of 11:00 PM AST Tue Oct 10 the center of Ophelia was located near 30.7, -37.6 with movement SE at 6 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1002 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.
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Tropical Storm Ophelia Public Advisory Number 8
2017-10-11 04:36:01| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Tue Oct 10 2017 000 WTNT32 KNHC 110235 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Ophelia Advisory Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172017 1100 PM AST Tue Oct 10 2017 ...OPHELIA MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD... ...FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY THURSDAY... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...30.7N 37.6W ABOUT 785 MI...1265 KM SW OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...SE OR 140 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Ophelia was located near latitude 30.7 North, longitude 37.6 West. Ophelia is moving toward the southeast near 6 mph (9 km/h). A southeastward to east-southeastward motion with some reduction in forward speed is forecast over the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Ophelia is forecast to become a hurricane by Thursday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Brown
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Tropical Storm Ophelia Forecast Advisory Number 8
2017-10-11 04:36:01| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC WED OCT 11 2017 000 WTNT22 KNHC 110235 TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172017 0300 UTC WED OCT 11 2017 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.7N 37.6W AT 11/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST OR 140 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 30NE 40SE 50SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 60SE 60SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.7N 37.6W AT 11/0300Z AT 11/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 30.9N 37.8W FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 30.3N 37.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 30SE 30SW 0NW. 34 KT... 40NE 50SE 60SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 30.1N 36.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 30.2N 36.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 15SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 30.7N 35.0W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 70SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 32.5N 30.8W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 80SW 70NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 15/0000Z 35.7N 23.2W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 16/0000Z 41.0N 14.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 30.7N 37.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Tropical Storm Ophelia Wind Speed Probabilities Number 8
2017-10-11 04:36:01| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC WED OCT 11 2017 000 FONT12 KNHC 110235 PWSAT2 TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172017 0300 UTC WED OCT 11 2017 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 37.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT PONTA DELGADA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 17(17) 2(19) PONTA DELGADA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) PONTA DELGADA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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