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Hurricane Ophelia Forecast Advisory Number 12
2017-10-12 04:37:34| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC THU OCT 12 2017 000 WTNT22 KNHC 120237 TCMAT2 HURRICANE OPHELIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172017 0300 UTC THU OCT 12 2017 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS IN THE EASTERN AZORES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF OPHELIA. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.0N 35.7W AT 12/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 40 DEGREES AT 3 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 986 MB EYE DIAMETER 15 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT. 64 KT....... 15NE 20SE 20SW 15NW. 50 KT....... 25NE 30SE 25SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 50NE 60SE 50SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 90SE 90SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.0N 35.7W AT 12/0300Z AT 12/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 29.9N 35.8W FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 30.4N 35.3W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 25SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 30NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 30.9N 34.6W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 30SE 25SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 50SE 40SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 80SE 70SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 31.7N 32.9W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 25SE 15SW 0NW. 50 KT... 40NE 50SE 40SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 110SE 80SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 32.8N 30.2W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 50SE 40SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 120SE 90SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 37.0N 22.0W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 50SE 40SW 30NW. 34 KT...120NE 160SE 180SW 200NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 16/0000Z 46.0N 14.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 17/0000Z 56.5N 8.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 30.0N 35.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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Hurricane Ophelia Graphics
2017-10-11 22:37:19| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 11 Oct 2017 20:37:19 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 11 Oct 2017 20:37:19 GMT
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Hurricane Ophelia Forecast Discussion Number 11
2017-10-11 22:31:34| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Wed Oct 11 2017 000 WTNT42 KNHC 112031 TCDAT2 Hurricane Ophelia Discussion Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172017 500 PM AST Wed Oct 11 2017 Intensity estimates for Ophelia still range wildly. Dvorak estimates, both subjective and objective, continue to support a much higher intensity than other satellite-derived maximum wind estimates. Adding to the uncertainty, subjective Dvorak classifications at 1800 UTC were higher than 6 hours prior, but since that time, the ragged eye has become obscured in IR imagery. However, a recent SSMIS pass at 1813 UTC indicated that the convective structure of the cyclone has improved during the day, so it wouldn't be surprising if the eye became apparent again shortly. In an attempt to blend all available data, the initial intensity has been increased to 65 kt, making Ophelia a hurricane. However, it should be stressed that the uncertainty of the initial intensity is higher than normal. The hurricane is moving slowly toward the east and the initial motion estimate is 090/3 kt. The hurricane is embedded within weak steering flow, and only a slow northeastward drift is expected for the next 24 h. After that time, an approaching deep-layer trough should force Ophelia to accelerate toward the northeast. All of the deterministic models are in fairly good agreement on the speed and track of Ophelia, however the various model ensembles suggest that the uncertainty is much higher, especially regarding the forward speed of Ophelia beyond 48 h. The official track forecast favors the deterministic model solutions, in part to maintain continuity with the previous advisory. The track forecast is therefore close to the multi-model consensus, but much faster than the various ensemble mean aids. Since it isn't clear exactly how strong Ophelia is, the intensity forecast is low confidence. All of the intensity guidance indicates that strengthening is likely for the next 24 to 36 hours, however the near stationary motion of the hurricane could induce some upwelling and limit the extent to which the hurricane may strengthen. Around 72 hours, the shear should begin to increase substantially as Ophelia begins to interact with the approaching trough, and extratropical transition will likely begin, accompanied by a broadening of the wind field and a gradual decrease of the maximum winds. The global models indicate that this process will complete by 96 h. The new NHC intensity forecast is slightly higher than the previous forecast, but lies on the lower end of the intensity guidance for the first 72 h. It is near the consensus aids thereafter. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 11/2100Z 30.0N 36.1W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 12/0600Z 30.3N 35.7W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 12/1800Z 30.7N 35.2W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 13/0600Z 31.4N 34.1W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 13/1800Z 32.3N 31.9W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 14/1800Z 35.5N 24.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 15/1800Z 43.0N 16.0W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 16/1800Z 53.5N 10.5W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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Summary for Hurricane Ophelia (AT2/AL172017)
2017-10-11 22:31:03| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...OPHELIA BECOMES THE 10TH HURRICANE OF THE 2017 SEASON... As of 5:00 PM AST Wed Oct 11 the center of Ophelia was located near 30.0, -36.1 with movement E at 3 mph. The minimum central pressure was 990 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 75 mph.
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Hurricane Ophelia Public Advisory Number 11
2017-10-11 22:31:03| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Wed Oct 11 2017 000 WTNT32 KNHC 112030 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Hurricane Ophelia Advisory Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172017 500 PM AST Wed Oct 11 2017 ...OPHELIA BECOMES THE 10TH HURRICANE OF THE 2017 SEASON... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...30.0N 36.1W ABOUT 760 MI...1220 KM SW OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 90 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.24 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Ophelia was located near latitude 30.0 North, longitude 36.1 West. Ophelia is moving toward the east near 3 mph (6 km/h). A slow northeast drift is expected tonight and tomorrow, followed by an acceleration toward the east-northeast or northeast. Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is possible over the next 48 hours. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 990 mb (29.24 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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